FXUS65 KRIW 020457 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 957 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer than average temperatures continue through the next week with mainly dry conditions. - Minimal snow chances (10-20%) for the northern Bighorns and points east Monday evening with a weak system with the main impact of increased clouds and temperatures not quite as warm Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 108 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026 The topsy-turvy winter continues across Wyoming, with temperatures running about 10 degrees warmer here than in central Florida this afternoon. Weather remains steady through the next 24 hours, staying well above normal temperatures and lighter winds. The next weather system still expected Monday night, with an inch or two of snow for the northern Absarokas and Bighorns, otherwise passing by with just mid to high clouds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2026 More of the same for the forecast with warmer than average temperatures up to 20 degrees east of the Divide and mainly dry conditions for at least another week. IR continues to depict cirrus spilling over the strong upper level ridge over much of the western United States, and will only increase in coverage later on Sunday and into Monday. With the northwest flow aloft, expect a stronger drainage wind for the Wind River Basin even in the overnight hours seeing gusts over 20 mph through much of the day Sunday and even into Monday as well, picked up mostly by the ever reliable FV3. Otherwise, breezy winds at the usual suspect areas for the wind corridor of Sweetwater to Natrona Counties, even extending into parts of Johnson as well for Sunday. The main finger of the PFJ remains well north into Canada before dipping into far northeastern parts of the country keeping the colder air north of the border. The aforementioned ridge does break down a bit as convergence weakens aloft that will allow for a weak shortwave to push by to the northeast Monday afternoon and evening. This will drop a "cold" front through the area that will knock temperatures a few degrees for Tuesday but still above average for this time of year to start the month of February. Minimal snow shower chances across the Bighorns Monday night into Tuesday morning dropping to Johnson County possibly but low confidence on anything significant (10-20%) at this time. Once this pushes through, the upper level ridge builds in stronger with increasing convergence aloft. This will keep the warmer than average temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy winds in the wind corridor through the week and weekend. Longer term model solutions, in particular the EC, depict a stronger system to affect the area come early the following week. The PFJ dips south allow for a strong westerly flow aloft that will likely bring western mountain snow as it normally does with the northwest Pacific moisture pushing in. With this, points east of the Divide will likely remain mostly dry but colder temperatures should be had for all if this comes to fruition. This is the only hope for a winter sighting in the long term forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 956 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the period. A weak, dry shortwave moving through will lead to some gusty winds and high clouds, though no precipitation is expected. Wind will be strongest at KCOD early in the period, with westerly gusts to 40 knots possible between 08Z and 12Z. Skies will become mostly clear around 18Z Monday before another high cloud deck moves into western Wyoming after 00Z. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Straub DISCUSSION...Lowe AVIATION...Myers