FXUS65 KREV 090846

AFDREV



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Reno NV

146 AM PDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Near record temperatures will be possible in western Nevada

  today and on Saturday with increased minor heat risk concerns 

  and renewed snowmelt runoff. 

  

* A late season storm system will bring increasing winds along

  with chances for mountain snowfall and valley rain showers from

  Sunday through Tuesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



* With high pressure firmly in place, high temperatures will peak

  today and on Saturday. Afternoon readings will end up in the mid

  to upper 80s (a few 90s) in western NV, eastern Lassen, and

  lower elevations of Mono County. The mid 70s to low 80s will be

  commonplace for a majority of eastern Sierra communities. For 

  today, Reno still has a 30% chance to tie the record high of 88 

  degrees and 10% chance to break that record. Otherwise, we'll 

  maintain a low 5% for isolated storms building over the Sierra 

  this afternoon and also on Saturday afternoon. Westerly winds 

  will once again become breezy during the afternoon, similar to 

  yesterday. However with the next approaching system, winds will 

  increase in strength from the southwest on Saturday with gusts 

  between 25-35 mph for western NV and northeast CA; and upwards 

  of 50 mph across the Sierra ridges. 



* The next system to move into the area will arrive as early as

  Sunday. Both deterministic and the corresponding model ensembles

  are in good agreement in the evolution of the pattern. A trough

  will drop into northern CA by Sunday afternoon. This feature

  will then slowly move into central NV by late Tuesday into early

  Wednesday. 



* The first concern with this late spring system will be a few

  days of strong west to southwest winds, primarily on Sunday and

  Monday. At the moment, wind prone areas of US-395/I-580 in

  western NV, northeast CA, and into Mono County each have a

  likely (>60%) chance for gusts of at least 50 mph or greater,

  with the 50th percentile maximum wind gusts of 50-60 mph. That 

  said, expect a few days of adverse traveling conditions by road 

  or air, and dangerous boating conditions on local area lakes. 

  

* Precipitation chances will become likely in northeast CA and far

  northern Washoe County by Monday morning. Precipitation moves

  south through the remainder of the area Monday into Tuesday. The

  best chances (>60%) for precipitation will be in the eastern

  Sierra from northern Mono County northward into Lassen County. 

  The chances for precipitation for the remainder of the area 

  (W.NV, rest of Mono County) drop to 30-40%. We'll continue with 

  the wet weather through Tuesday, with shower chances diminishing

  by early Wednesday. Snow levels will drop to around 6,500' on 

  Monday (8,000' in Mono County), then possibly as low as 5,500' 

  Tuesday morning. Any snow accumulations will be tough to stick 

  on the roadways given the warm conditions ahead of the system. 

  Nonetheless, it will feel more like early March compared to the 

  late June conditions we'll have the next few days. -McKellar

 

&&



.AVIATION...



Area terminals will see VFR conditions prevail again today with 

light afternoon breezes out of the west-southwest. Isolated shower/T-

storm chances will be limited to around a 5% chance along the 

Sierra crest during the afternoon hours today. Models continue to

show a spring low pressure system in the forecast this weekend 

that will increase winds on Saturday afternoon with the potential 

for strong and gusty winds for Sunday and Monday which could 

yield increased likelihood of mountain wave turbulence and LLWS. 

Area precipitation chances return by early Monday that continue 

through Tuesday. -078



&&



.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

NV...None.

CA...None.

&&



$$