FXUS65 KPUB 092333

AFDPUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

533 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the mountains

  and across the valleys this evening and tomorrow afternoon.



- Warmer and drier, and trending windy next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025



Tonight: Other than some mountain showers during the evening, a 

relatively quiet night is in store for south central and 

southeastern Colorado. Overall, a ridge of high pressure will be in 

place, though a weak ripple will slowly push southward over the area 

during this period. With the minor support from the disturbance, and 

diurnal orographics and instability still present, showers and weak 

thunderstorms are expected to be present across the higher terrain 

and valleys during the evening hours, with light snow along the 

peaks. As diurnally driven orographics and instability wane though, 

any showers are anticipated to dissipate during the early overnight 

hours, with dry conditions prevailing into the morning. Otherwise, 

winds will remain light outside of any thunderstorms, with skies 

becoming increasingly clear as showers lessens. As for temperatures, 

a rather mild and near seasonal night is anticipated, with 40s for 

the plains, 30s for the valleys, and 20s to 30s for the mountains. 



Tomorrow: For the start of the weekend, a near repeat of Friday is 

expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. The 

aforementioned ridge will remain in place over the region, with 

recycled moisture still trapped under the high pressure. As the day 

progresses, diurnal orographics and instability will materialize, 

allowing for another afternoon of scattered showers and weak 

thunderstorms over the mountains and valleys. As for the plains 

though, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail given the lack of 

any major forcing. Beyond all of that, winds will continues to 

remain relatively light outside of any thunderstorm outflows, with 

clear skies early becoming more partly cloudy as showers and 

thunderstorms blossom over the mountains and valleys. Looking at 

temperatures, a near to slightly above seasonal day is expected, 

with low 70s to low 80s for the plains, mid 60s to low 70s for the 

valleys, and mid 40s to low 60s for the mountains.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025



The warming trend will continue through early next week as upper

level ridging gives way to southwest flow over CO due to the 

approach of the next upper trough across the western U.S. 

Temperatures will warm into the 80s across the lower elevations 

with around 90 degree readings creeping back into the plains by 

Monday and Tuesday as dry southwest flow overspreads the region.

Mountains and valleys will warm into the 50s to lower 70s. 

Residual moisture on Sunday will result in some isolated 

afternoon thunderstorms, but these will be spotty, bringing 

only some brief light rainfall, gusty winds and lightning to 

local areas in and near the mountains. 



Monday and Tuesday look dry now with increasing winds across 

the mountains and plains. In fact, critical fire weather 

conditions will return to portions of the I-25 corridor for 

Monday, expanding into the San Luis Valley and southeast plains 

for Tuesday and Wednesday. However recent moisture and green up

will mitigate any fire weather risk across the southeast

mountains and plains. May have to monitor the San Luis Valley

closely as they received less moisture out that way, and a

cooler climo generally means a later greenup. 



The system still passes to the north on Wednesday with 

troughing lingering across the Desert Southwest through Thursday

before dampening and lifting out late week into next weekend. 

This will mean a slight cool down with daily showers and 

afternoon thunderstorms returning to the mountains for 

Wednesday, mainly along the Continental Divide. The plains will

remain dry and windy for Wednesday, with a dry cold front 

possible late week, though temperatures will stay around to a 

little above normal. -KT



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 532 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025



VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf

sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light and variable.



AT KALS, a few convective showers will be possible through about

02 UTC.



&&



.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...SIMCOE

LONG TERM...KT

AVIATION...HODANISH