FXUS65 KPUB 091724 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1124 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend continues today, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the higher terrain. - Much warmer through the extended period, with the best chances for mountain convection expected through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 310 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025 Today and Tonight... Temperatures will noticeably warm today as high pressure builds beneath an upper level ridge to our west. Highs will climb into the high 60s-70s over the plains, with low-mid 60s for the valleys. The plains will see mostly sunny skies as well, along with fairly light surface winds. Meanwhile, enough moisture will linger under the ridge for another round of showers over the mountains, with a few thunderstorms as well. Showers and storms will be most likely over the peaks of the Continental Divide, particularly the Sawatch Range and San Juans, but the rest of the mountains could see some scattered coverage as well. Even so, not many storms are anticipated overall, and those that do form should not have enough CAPE to work with to become particularly strong. Some brief moderate rainfall, lightning, and somewhat gusty outflow winds will be possible. The area will then quickly dry out overnight tonight, with lows in the 40s for the plains and 30s for the high valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 310 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025 Saturday...Upper ridge will be located directly over the Four Corners and Rocky Mt regions, providing for a warm day across the forecast area. Though the plains will likely remain dry, there will be enough trapped moisture under the ridge for another day of scattered to likely showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain through the afternoon and early evening. Look for highs around 70F for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains. Sunday through Tuesday...Long range models still indicate that an upper low pressure trough off the Pacific NW coast on Sun, will dig south and move inland into the Great Basin on Mon and Tue. This will increase southwest flow aloft across the Four Corners and CO, which in turn increases downslope flow and drying conditions all three days for the forecast area. There is isolated convection forecast for the higher terrain on Sun and Tue, with Mon looking more like a dry day. As for temps, plan on readings well above seasonal normals, with Mon and Tue gearing up to be the hottest days of the extended period. Expect highs in the 70s all three days for the high valleys, while the plains climb into the mid 70s to mid 80s for Sun, then 80s to near 90F for Mon and Tue. Wednesday and Thursday...The upper low pressure system is expected to eject to the northeast out of the Great Basin and into WY and MT. This more northerly track will continue stronger winds for the forecast area, low-end precipitation chances for the higher terrain, and a slight cooling trend both days. Moore && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025 KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions with relatively light winds are expected to prevail through this TAF period. Clouds will increase heading through the afternoon, though with clear skies returning during the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning. KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. While dry conditions are anticipated, showers, and possibly thunderstorms, are expected to develop within the San Luis Valley this afternoon. The main concern with any of these showers will be gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, winds will remain light outside of any influence from outflows, with skies becoming cloudy this afternoon and then clearing during the evening to early overnight hours. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...SIMCOE