FXUS65 KPUB 090911

AFDPUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

311 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warming trend continues today, with afternoon showers and

  thunderstorms for the higher terrain.



- Much warmer through the extended period, with the best chances

  for mountain convection expected through Saturday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 310 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025



Today and Tonight...



Temperatures will noticeably warm today as high pressure builds 

beneath an upper level ridge to our west. Highs will climb into the 

high 60s-70s over the plains, with low-mid 60s for the valleys. The 

plains will see mostly sunny skies as well, along with fairly light 

surface winds. Meanwhile, enough moisture will linger under the 

ridge for another round of showers over the mountains, with a few 

thunderstorms as well. Showers and storms will be most likely over 

the peaks of the Continental Divide, particularly the Sawatch Range 

and San Juans, but the rest of the mountains could see some 

scattered coverage as well. Even so, not many storms are anticipated 

overall, and those that do form should not have enough CAPE to work 

with to become particularly strong. Some brief moderate rainfall, 

lightning, and somewhat gusty outflow winds will be possible. The 

area will then quickly dry out overnight tonight, with lows in the 

40s for the plains and 30s for the high valleys.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 310 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025



Saturday...Upper ridge will be located directly over the Four 

Corners and Rocky Mt regions, providing for a warm day across the 

forecast area. Though the plains will likely remain dry, there will 

be enough trapped moisture under the ridge for another day of 

scattered to likely showers and thunderstorms over the higher 

terrain through the afternoon and early evening. Look for highs 

around 70F for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the 

plains.



Sunday through Tuesday...Long range models still indicate that an 

upper low pressure trough off the Pacific NW coast on Sun, will dig 

south and move inland into the Great Basin on Mon and Tue. This will 

increase southwest flow aloft across the Four Corners and CO, which 

in turn increases downslope flow and drying conditions all three 

days for the forecast area. There is isolated convection forecast 

for the higher terrain on Sun and Tue, with Mon looking more like a 

dry day. As for temps, plan on readings well above seasonal normals, 

with Mon and Tue gearing up to be the hottest days of the extended 

period. Expect highs in the 70s all three days for the high valleys, 

while the plains climb into the mid 70s to mid 80s for Sun, then 80s 

to near 90F for Mon and Tue.



Wednesday and Thursday...The upper low pressure system is expected 

to eject to the northeast out of the Great Basin and into WY and MT. 

This more northerly track will continue stronger winds for the 

forecast area, low-end precipitation chances for the higher terrain, 

and a slight cooling trend both days. Moore



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... 

Issued at 310 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025



VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 

hours. Winds at KCOS and KPUB should remain near or below 10 knots 

and will be diurnally driven. For KALS, generally north winds will 

turn easterly during the afternoon, with the occasional gust. There 

is a very small chance of a shower drifting off the higher terrain, 

but current confidence is too low to include in this round of TAFs.



&&



.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO

LONG TERM...MOORE

AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO