FXUS65 KPUB 020530 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1130 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected along the higher terrain and valleys through this evening and again on Wednesday. - Seasonable weather pattern over region, with scattered showers mountain valleys with isolated precipitation the over plains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Currently...radar shows showers and thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain this afternoon. Weak steering flows aloft will keep thunderstorms anchored to the higher terrain. Southerly flow remains in place across the Plains, where temperatures have warmed into the 80s to lower 90s. Rest of today and tonight...broad upper ridging will remain place across the Rockies through tonight. Weak energy lifting north across the Western Slope will rotate northeast into northern Colorado this evening. Expected continued showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain into the evening hours. At this time, the Plains look to remain dry. A couple of storms will likely pass along the Palmer Divide through this afternoon, mainly impacting areas of northern El Paso County. The main thunderstorm risks will be brief heavy rainfall, lightning, small hail and wind gusts near 40 mph. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the Plains, and near 80 across the San Luis Valley this afternoon, falling off into the 50s to lower 60s on the Plains, and 40s across the San Luis Valley. Wednesday...the upper pattern will remain nearly steady, with high pressure drifting slowly east into Western Kansas by late afternoon. Weak energy will continue to lift north across western Colorado, with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the Continental Divide. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may be possible over the Eastern Mountains. Main thunderstorm risks will be brief heavy rainfall, lightning and wind gusts near 40 mph. Conditions look to remain dry on the Plains. Temperatures look to warm a few degrees as well, with most of the Plains reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s for highs, with lower 80s across the San Luis Valley. Mozley && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 243 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Broad monsoon pattern will continue over the region through this long term forecast period. This pattern will keep temperatures around seasonable values over the fcst area. Overall best chance of precip will continue over the mtns and valleys with only isolated precip chances over the plains. There will likely be a bit more enhanced chance of precip over the mtns on Thursday as a trough to our north moves eastward, and this will bring some better lift and moisture over the mtns on this day. Given the monsoon pattern is becoming established over the higher terrain, there will be a chance of pockets of heavier showers which may cause high water issues, especially in burn scar region and areas that are susceptible to flash flooding. As for the plains, it looks rather dry. The only chance of some better chances of precip could be on Friday (4 July) if the trough moving across to our north can bring down a boundary, this could increase the convergence over the plains giving us a slightly better chance of some precip over the lower elevations, but at this time it does not look favorable. \/Hodanish && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 KCOS, KPUB, KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds overnight will increase a some tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing becomes established, particularly for KCOS and KPUB. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to prevail, with occasional mid to high level clouds, particularly for KALS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...SIMCOE