FXUS65 KPSR 271909

AFDPSR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Phoenix AZ

1209 PM MST Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry and mostly tranquil conditions will prevail through the 

  week with temperatures near to slightly above normal.



- A weak cold front will slide southward across the forecast area

  resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions for portions of

  the region Tuesday and Wednesday. 



  

&&



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 

Current WV imagery and 500mb analysis reveals quasi-zonal flow 

stretched out across the Desert Southwest as a transient trough 

advances over the northern Rockies and a large anticyclone spins 

over the eastern Pacific. With no noticeable wave feature over in 

the vicinity of our forecast area, conditions for the next several 

days will continue to be dry and mostly quiet. Heights aloft are 

favored to remain above climatological normals so temperatures near 

to slightly above normal will persist into the middle portion of the 

week with readings generally in the middle 80s to lower 90s for 

lower desert locations.



The most noticeable change in conditions will be observed Tuesday 

afternoon into Wednesday as breezy to locally windy conditions 

develop thanks to a weak cold front associated with the above-

mentioned trough slides south across Arizona. The enhanced 

thermal and pressure gradient will help generate gusts around 

20-30 mph for portions of the region during the above mentioned 

timeframe with greater magnitudes (30-35 mph) expected for the 

high terrain areas east of the Phoenix metro Wednesday morning. 

There are hints of some advisory level gusts (>40 mph) being 

reached during that Wednesday morning time period, mainly focused 

over the highest ridge tops, but due to the limited spatial extent

and uncertainty regarding if the advisory threshold will be 

reached, wind products will not be issued at this time.



&&



.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...

By the end of the week, models show a weak shortwave trough moving 

into our region. This weak shortwave will push the high pressure out 

of our region resulting in lower heights aloft. H5 heights are 

forecasted to fall to around 581-584 dm resulting in a slight 

cooling trend of a couple degrees. By the end of the workweek and 

heading into the weekend afternoon high temperatures are forecasted 

to fall back into the mid to upper 80s to near 90 across the lower 

deserts and in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the higher terrain. 

By the end of the weekend and beginning of next week, global 

ensembles are in pretty good agreement that high pressure will start 

to build back in, which will lead to a slight increase in 

temperatures. Either way, temperatures look to remain above normal 

with dry conditions continuing for at least the next 10 days. 



&&



.AVIATION...Updated at 1700Z. 



South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and 

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:



No significant weather issues will exist through Tuesday afternoon 

under clear skies. Trends in winds will be similar to yesterday with 

the exception of SE California where a northerly component will 

become more predominant. Speeds should generally be lighter (less 

than 8 kt) than yesterday resulting in substantial variability 

during subtle wind shifts and extended periods of calm conditions. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures will remain largely unchanged today with a slight 

warming trend during the middle of the week. Temperatures then look 

to cool a few degrees by the end of the workweek and heading into 

next weekend. Either way temperatures look to be 4-8 degrees above 

normal through the week. MinRHs today will be around 20% for the 

lower deserts to around 25% over the higher terrain areas. Then 

tomorrow through the remainder of the week, minRHs fall to 10-15% 

for the lower deserts to around 20% for the higher terrain areas. 

Winds over the next week will generally follow their typical diurnal 

tendencies with limited afternoon upslope gustiness. Tuesday 

afternoon will have the highest wind gusts with gusts of 20-25 in 

the Lower Colorado River Valley and across the higher terrain in the 

eastern district. 



&&



.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...None.

CA...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...RW

LONG TERM...Berislavich 

AVIATION...18 

FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich