FXUS65 KPIH 220356

AFDPIH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pocatello ID

956 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A few more record highs today, then cooler Sunday behind the

  cold front.



- Breezy afternoon winds with gusts of 30-40 mph. Windy across 

  the Arco Desert, with patchy blowing dust.



- Warming up again early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Satellite and radar imagery show a shortwave feature driving 

through the Idaho panhandle and western Montana today. 

Precipitation trajectories generally stay north of the region, 

but a few light showers will still be possible mainly north of 

Stanley and across the Island Park area. Gusty winds still 

appear to be the main impact with this frontal system. Continued

trend of nudging deterministic NBM wind speeds and gusts 

upwards this afternoon and evening. WIND ADVISORY remains in 

place, but will likely be a low end verification. Strong gusts 

are also possible along the benches east of Idaho Falls and 

Rexburg, but these areas are rather isolated compared to the 

entire zone, so will continue to leave that zone out of the 

Advisory but monitor. 



Cooler temperatures in place for Sunday, but remaining above

seasonal normals. This will be the coolest day of the week as

flat ridge rebuilds for early in the week allowing lower

elevation temperatures to rebound back into the 70s by Tuesday.

Next system drives through the region Wednesday into Thursday,

though could see a few higher elevation showers arriving as

early as late Tuesday across portions of the central mountains.

Flow aloft is more zonal, which would lead to another round of

breezy to windy conditions across the region. The strongest

winds should arrive on Thursday behind the frontal boundary, and

NBM means already support potential WIND ADVISORY conditions.

Temperatures behind this system the coolest for Thursday, again

rebounding back into the 70s for the end of the week and

beginning of the weekend. There is still quite a bit of 

ensemble uncertainty this far out, however, so fluctuations in 

the forecast are expected.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... 

Issued at 948 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026



High pressure will return in the wake of the Saturday cold

front. There is one residual upper level trough expected to

develop CIGs around 5000ft-7000ft AGL in some of the TAFs,

mostly in the south. But this should move out before airdromes

reopen to normal operations in the morning. SKC to SCT sky

conditions are expected during the day, then shortly after the

end time of 23/06Z more clouds will be moving in, as can be seen

in the 30 hour TAF for KSUN. 



Wind has been elevated to strong the past few days, but this is

(finally!) ending with weaker wind aloft in the afternoon.

However, it is still from the usual directions and should not be

a factor. 



&&



.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...DMH

AVIATION...Messick