FXUS65 KPIH 090904 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 304 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming temperatures. - Breezy Saturday. - Better/more widespread precipitation chances this weekend into next week as a cold front slowly moves through the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 302 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025 Overall, our weather remains quiet for today with our warming trend continuing. Highs will push into the low to mid 80s in the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River Plain this afternoon with upper 70s in the upper Snake River Plain. There will be a few more clouds around today, but conditions generally remain mostly to partly sunny this afternoon. Highs will be about 5 degrees warmer on Saturday, meaning more of us will be in the low to mid 80s, but the NBM does show about a 10 to 20 percent chance of reaching 90 degrees in parts of the eastern Magic Valley. That said, the NBM seems to be catching up with highs, so did not make any manual adjustments to the forecast. In addition to temperatures increasing for Saturday, the chance for showers and storms will also be increasing ahead of a cold front. Currently, models are holding back a bit on convection during the Saturday afternoon/evening time frame for Eastern Idaho as they show the cold front still farther north and west of us. If we can get some storms going, there is enough CAPE (~300 to 500 J/kg) and steep enough lapse rates (8.0 to 9.0 C/km) to get some stronger wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and some small hail. However, 0 to 6 km shear is lacking a bit (20-30 kts) over our area. It will also be breezy in general on Saturday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph across much of the area. We will be very near Lake Wind advisory criteria at the American Falls reservoir. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 302 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025 Upper level Pacific trof moves on shore with strong southwesterly flow aloft over Idaho. Will see embedded waves in this pattern with showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected Sunday throughout southeast Idaho. Will start to see a cooling trend but high temperatures Sunday will still be well above normal with highs in the 60s to lower 70s mountains and 70s to lower 80s valleys. With the showers it will also be very breezy with sustained winds 15 to 25 mph in the Snake Plain and also southern and central mountains. Trof moves on shore Monday and a cold front will have moved through Idaho. Will continue to have a threat for showers and thunderstorms but not as significant as Sunday. Highs drop to the 50s and 60s mountains and 60s to lower 70s valleys. It remains windy with 15 to 20 mph sustained winds likely continue. It will take several days for the trof to move through the state and will see showers and thunderstorms likely once again Wednesday and Thursday as the trof moves overhead then works east Thursday. HIghs Wednesday only in the 40s mountains and 50s valleys with snow levels dropping to around 7 thousand feet so will likely see some snowfall in the highest elevations. Highs Thursday in the 40s and 50s mountains and back into the upper 50s to mid 60s valleys with slightly drier conditions expected Friday with only a slight chance or chance of showers and highs again in the 50s to near 60 mountains and mid 60s to near 70 in valleys. It will remain a bit breezy Tuesday through THursday with 10 to 20 mph sustained winds expected through the period in the Snake River Plain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 807 PM MDT Thu May 8 2025 Expect VFR conditions with clear skies and overall light winds through the period as our area will be firmly under high pressure. Expect afternoon diurnal wind shifts for all sites except KBYI. KBYI will remain under a light easterly to southeasterly flow. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AMM LONG TERM...GK AVIATION...TW