FXUS65 KPIH 090029

AFDPIH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pocatello ID

629 PM MDT Thu May 8 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warming temperatures.



- Isolated to scattered storms in the north this afternoon and

  early evening.



- Better/more widespread precipitation chances this weekend 

  into next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu May 8 2025



Satellite imagery shows shortwave trough moving through East Idaho 

this afternoon. Enough moisture present, especially along the 

Divide, to help prompt isolated to scattered showers and 

thunderstorms across the northeast corner of the forecast area. 

Surface based CAPE looking more favorable this afternoon per NAM, 

and steep low level lapse rates would be indicative of gusty 

outflows. Would not expect severe this afternoon/early evening, but 

gust potential approaches and may exceed 40 mph this afternoon for 

the stronger storms per the HRRR. Precipitation expected to remain 

limited, generally below 0.10" for most storms. A few storms may 

still reach as far south as Idaho Falls, but confidence diminishes 

rapidly that far south. Sunset should bring and end to the 

convective activity, leading into dry conditions through Friday 

night. Temperatures continue to climb Friday, reaching 80 or better 

for a large chunk of lower elevation areas in East Idaho.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu May 8 2025



Saturday is still looking to be the warmest day of the week, and 

with NBM deterministic falling below the probabilistic values, have 

nudged temperatures up a couple degrees. This puts 90 degree 

readings in sight for a few areas, mainly across the Eastern Magic 

Valley and Shoshone/Lava beds areas. This could also put daytime 

record highs in jeopardy at a few of our METAR sites. Passage of a 

weak shortwave trough in the southwest flow aloft could bring a 

threat of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Winds look 

marginal, but close, for potential wind concerns at American Falls 

Reservoir to start off Lake Wind season. Sunday through Thursday 

look considerably cooler and much more wet as Pacific trough shifts 

inland and across the state. Breezy to windy conditions continue as 

well.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 628 PM MDT Thu May 8 2025



Expect VFR conditions through the period as our area remains on the 

edge of high pressure in southwest flow aloft. TAF sites will get a 

little breezy with gusts up to around 20 mph this afternoon with a 

short wave feature moving over the Montana Divide. This feature will 

also bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this 

afternoon in the Island Park area. There is only a 5 to 10 percent 

chance for KIDA and KDIJ to see showers and thunderstorms this 

afternoon. Have left showers and thunderstorms out of all TAFs. 

Expect clear skies with overall light winds overnight into tomorrow 

morning. 



&&



.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...DMH

LONG TERM...DMH

AVIATION...TW