FXUS65 KPIH 051145

AFDPIH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pocatello ID

445 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated Mountain Showers: High-resolution REFS guidance

  indicates isolated shower chances across the Central and

  eastern mountains this evening, but the vast majority of

  eastern Idaho will remain dry.



- Building Weekend Ridge: Models remain steadfast on 

  establishing an upper-level ridge across the Intermountain 

  West Friday through early next week, guaranteeing prolonged 

  dry and tranquil conditions. 



- Warmer Temperatures By Weekend: Temperatures will run near 

  normal through Friday before climbing 7 to 10 degrees above 

  seasonal averages Sunday into early next week, pushing lower-

  elevation highs toward 60°F.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1225 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026



A weak shortwave will swing through the state today through early 

Friday, bringing low-end chances for precipitation across the higher 

terrain this evening through Friday morning. Have added PoPs up to 

25 percent above 7,500 feet in the central mountains as well as 

along the MT Divide during the evening based on REFS guidance.



Daytime temperatures will remain very stable and run within a few 

degrees of normal through Friday with widespread highs ranging the 

40s. A ridge of high pressure will begin to amplify over the region 

Friday behind the departing shortwave, which will keep conditions 

dry and mild through late next week. Southerly flow will help warm 

temperatures by more than 5 degrees on Sunday and temperatures will 

continue to run 5 to 10 degrees above climatological norms through 

much of next week, ranging the 50s for much of Southeast Idaho.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 440 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026



MVFR CIGs still in place over KDIJ and expected to persist

through around 16z. Otherwise, VFR elsewhere with skies 

clearing from west to east between 00z and 07z tonight. Have 

retained VCSH at KSUN between 19z and 03z as weak system brings 

isolated chances for showers to the central and eastern 

mountains. Mostly light and variable winds today outside of 

winds closer to 10 kts at KSUN.



&&



.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Cropp

AVIATION...Cropp