FXUS65 KPIH 030300 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms every day through Saturday with July 4th likely the most widespread coverage as an upper level wave pushes east. - Cooler temperatures beginning Thursday with highs only in the 70s and 80s Thursday through Saturday. - Overall dry conditions are expected to return by Sunday and continue into next week with an overall warming trend as well. Temperatures will return to the 90s for lower elevations. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Southerly flow aloft continues through the short term period with extensive moisture working into the region. Will have isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Thursday afternoon and evening. Expect more widespread coverage Thursday afternoon with scattered coverage more widespread especially in higher elevations. Lows tonight in the 50s and 60s with highs Thursday into the 70s mountains and 80s to near 90 valleys. Expecting strong wind gusts only near any thunderstorm outflow activity. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Friday is expected to have the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity in the forecast period. Over 0.10 inches is likely in the central mountain and Sun Valley region and northeast mountains. Expect lesser amounts in the Snake Plain and southern mountains. It will be the coolest day as well with highs only in the 70s and 80s with some 60s mountains. Convective activity will be limited to the northeast mountains Saturday with continued cool weather with highs in the 70s and 80s continuing. Dry and hot conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday with another upper level ridge building over Idaho. Highs Monday through Wednesday in the 80s mountains and 90s valleys possible approaching 100 in some locations by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 859 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 No major changes to the forecast for the rest of tonight and into Thursday. A few spotty showers remain this evening and models continue to show potential for showers late tonight/early Thursday morning, so have kept VCSH in for all sites. However, there is the potential this ends up being more virga than actual showers. Went with VCTS for most sites in the TAFs for Thursday afternoon for now due to some discrepancies between hi-res models. Added in a PROB30 for IDA for Thursday evening as both the NAM and HRRR show the potential for a line of storms moving through beginning around 02Z Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Trend still in place for increased thunderstorm coverage moving through the rest of the week. Cloud cover early today may have limited the amount of instability for thunderstorms today, but in any case, coverage today leans more toward isolated and widely scattered. Gusty winds 35-50 mph will be possible. Thunderstorm coverage increases into Thursday, and then again into Friday for the 4th. There is some potential for overnight storms Thursday night, but confidence is low. The increase in precipitation comes with a decrease in temperatures and increase in daytime humidity. By Friday, most thunderstorms should be able to produce a wetting rain. The bulk of the moisture shifts east for the weekend, allowing for a warming trend to return to East Idaho. Humidities should return toward more seasonable levels, but isolated thunderstorms may continue across higher terrain zones through Sunday. High pressure builds back into the Intermountain West for the early part of next week, for continued drying and warming trend. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for IDZ413. && $$ SHORT TERM...GK LONG TERM...GK AVIATION...AMM FIRE WEATHER...DMH