FXUS65 KPIH 022320 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 520 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms every day through Saturday with July 4th likely the most widespread coverage as an upper level wave pushes east. - Cooler temperatures beginning Thursday with highs only in the 70s and 80s Thursday through Saturday. - Overall dry conditions are expected to return by Sunday and continue into next week with an overall warming trend as well. Temperatures will return to the 90s for lower elevations. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Southerly flow aloft continues through the short term period with extensive moisture working into the region. Will have isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Thursday afternoon and evening. Expect more widespread coverage Thursday afternoon with scattered coverage more widespread especially in higher elevations. Lows tonight in the 50s and 60s with highs Thursday into the 70s mountains and 80s to near 90 valleys. Expecting strong wind gusts only near any thunderstorm outflow activity. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Friday is expected to have the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity in the forecast period. Over 0.10 inches is likely in the central mountain and Sun Valley region and northeast mountains. Expect lesser amounts in the Snake Plain and southern mountains. It will be the coolest day as well with highs only in the 70s and 80s with some 60s mountains. Convective activity will be limited to the northeast mountains Saturday with continued cool weather with highs in the 70s and 80s continuing. Dry and hot conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday with another upper level ridge building over Idaho. Highs Monday through Wednesday in the 80s mountains and 90s valleys possible approaching 100 in some locations by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 519 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening, though most are far enough east now to be pushing into western WY. There are a few more showers lifting northward up out of far southwestern UT and northwestern NV into southern ID, so will keep an eye on things, but have removed VCTS from all sites except for DIJ where it will only continue for about another hour or so. VCSH and SHRA chances will increase after midnight tonight with more thunderstorms in the forecast for Thursday afternoon. Went with VCTS in the TAFs for Thursday afternoon for now due to some discrepancies between hi-res models, but hoping there will be a bit more consensus with data this evening/tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Trend still in place for increased thunderstorm coverage moving through the rest of the week. Cloud cover early today may have limited the amount of instability for thunderstorms today, but in any case, coverage today leans more toward isolated and widely scattered. Gusty winds 35-50 mph will be possible. Thunderstorm coverage increases into Thursday, and then again into Friday for the 4th. There is some potential for overnight storms Thursday night, but confidence is low. The increase in precipitation comes with a decrease in temperatures and increase in daytime humidity. By Friday, most thunderstorms should be able to produce a wetting rain. The bulk of the moisture shifts east for the weekend, allowing for a warming trend to return to East Idaho. Humidities should return toward more seasonable levels, but isolated thunderstorms may continue across higher terrain zones through Sunday. High pressure builds back into the Intermountain West for the early part of next week, for continued drying and warming trend. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for IDZ413. && $$ SHORT TERM...GK LONG TERM...GK AVIATION...AMM FIRE WEATHER...DMH