FXUS65 KMSO 270851

AFDMSO



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Missoula MT

251 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGES:



- Unsettled weather continues today as a ridge starts building

  over the region. 



- Models waiver on the impacts of a short wave moving through the

  ridge on Wednesday. 



- The next system arrives this weekend with more rain and higher

  snow levels. 



This morning starts out with the northern Rockies under the base

of a trough over the region. That is resulting in snow showers

this morning, and some may even reach the valley floors of western

Montana. But these showers will peak in intensity and coverage

this morning as a ridge starts to build into the region today.

That ridge will be firmly in place by Tuesday morning. 



Models have trended wetter again with a shortwave moving through

the ridge on Wednesday. As a result, it looks more likely that

northwest and west central Montana will pick up some showers,

especially in the mountains on Wednesday. This will be a quick

moving shortwave, so little to no impacts are expected from the

showers at this time. 



The next weather system arrives late Friday or early Saturday.

Once again, it will be an atmospheric river bringing quite a lot

of moisture in from the Pacific. At this time, the moisture

amounts do look lower than the last 2 atmospheric river events

we've had recently, and the snow levels also look to remain near

or above 5,000 ft for the duration of the event. 



&&



.AVIATION...We start the day out today under the base of a cold

trough with some showers and low snow levels. Accumulating snow at

area terminals is unlikely due to warm ground temperatures, except

at KBTM which is at an elevation near 5,000 ft. Expect shower

activity to peak early in the day as a ridge starts building over

the region. Any impacts to ceiling and visibility at area

terminals is expected to be MVFR and last less than an hour if it

occurs at all.



&&



.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for 

     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region...

     Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region...

     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.



ID...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ today for 

     Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region...Northern 

     Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains...

     Western Lemhi County.



&&



$$