FXUS65 KMSO 070849

AFDMSO



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Missoula MT

249 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGES:



- Dry and warm weather this week, with above normal temperatures.



- Showers and isolated thunderstorms across Flathead and Lincoln

  Counties this afternoon and evening.  



Numerous showers and thunderstorms developed across northwest

Montana overnight through the early morning today, with a handful

of observing sites, including West Glacier recording 0.25 inches

or more of precipitation. This activity was driven by an upper

level trough passage within northwest flow. High-resolution 

models suggest shower activity will continue on the backside of 

this trough through mid-morning across northwest Montana. 

A west-northwest gradient will lead widespread breezy winds this 

afternoon, with gusts reaching 15-30 mph across valley areas 

(highest gusts south of I-90). The atmosphere will destabilize 

this afternoon, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 

redeveloping across Flathead and Lincoln Counties. 



Model guidance remains in strong agreement for a broad ridge of

high pressure to amplify across the Northern Rockies Friday into

the weekend. This will bring noticeable warming trend, especially

by Sunday under a southwest flow aloft. 



Looking ahead to early next week, confidence is medium-high (80% 

probability) for warm and dry conditions to continue with high 

pressure remaining over the Northern Rockies. A minority of global

ensembles (20% of members) suggest a breakdown of the ridge with 

a quick moving Pacific system bringing a return of showers and 

thunderstorms during the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. 



&&



.AVIATION...Rain showers will continue across northwest Montana

this morning through at least 07/1400Z as an upper level trough

passes within northwest flow. Terrain obscurations will be 

common, especially along the divide, where shower activity will 

focus this morning. A west-northwest gradient will set up across 

the Northern Rockies airspace by late morning through the 

afternoon, with area terminals seeing gusts of 15-25kt. High- 

resolution models and forecast soundings suggest the atmosphere 

will destabilize by 07/1900Z, with scattered showers developing 

across northwest Montana. The threat for lightning will focus 

along the divide, with lightning probabilities peaking at 20-30% 

across Flathead County, including KGPI by 08/0000Z. 



&&



.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MT...None.

ID...None.

&&



$$