FXUS65 KMSO 031951

AFDMSO



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Missoula MT

151 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGES:



-  Thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rain

   continue this afternoon through Friday



-  A warming trend starts early this week that will culminate in

   another extended period of hot, dry weather. 



Satellite and radar are showing scattered to widespread showers

and thunderstorms developing across Lemhi county into southwest

Montana. These storms will be capable of producing erratic winds

with gusts up to 45 mph along with moderate to heavy rainfall. The

storms will move off to the east during the evening hours. 



A small low pressure system will be moving through the Northern

Rockies Friday into Saturday. A plume of showers along with

embedded thunderstorms is expected to move from the south to the

north during the morning and early afternoon hours. A second pulse

of convection with even stronger storms is expected to develop

during the afternoon over Lemhi county into southwest Montana.

These storms will be capable of producing another round of strong

erratic winds along with heavy rainfall. The heavy rain could

cause localized flooding concerns especially over flood prone

basins and recent burn scars. 



As the low moves off to the east on Saturday, wrap around

precipitation will affect areas along the Continental Divide

especially around Glacier National Park. While the remainder of

the Northern Rockies experience scattered rain showers and

thunderstorms. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be

significantly cooler as afternoon readings appear to be around 5

degrees below seasonal averages. 



A ridge of high pressure begins to build over the Northern Rockies

Sunday through the middle part of next week causing a warming and

drying trend. Temperatures once again appear to warm to around 10

degrees above normal by Tuesday.  



The extended models are showing a weak disturbance flattening the

ridge by the latter part of the week. The timing and strength of

this disturbance is still uncertain, but expect seasonal

temperatures and increased westerly winds. This disturbance could

also bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back to the

Northern Rockies. 





&&



.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop

over Lemhi county into southwest Montana this afternoon into the

evening affecting KSMN and KBTM. The convection appears to

diminish at both terminals by 04/02z. These storms will be capable

of wind gusts up to 45 mph along with moderate to heavy rainfall.

A plume of showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected to move

northward by Friday morning affecting KSMN by 04/14z.



&&



.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MT...None.

ID...None.

&&



$$