FXUS65 KMSO 030728

AFDMSO



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Missoula MT

1228 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGES:



- Patchy black ice this morning as showers end



- Mid week ridge: Warmth and stagnant pattern



- Pattern Shift on the Horizon (Feb 8-10): Increased precipitation

  chances





Moist northwest flow persists early this morning, driving lingering

showers primarily along the terrain of north-central Idaho and 

west-central Montana. With snow levels hovering near 5,000 feet, water

on roadways may freeze, creating patchy black ice where sub- surface

conditions remain cold.



A strong high-pressure ridge will build this afternoon and persist through

the remainder of the work week. Unseasonably warm temperatures, ranging

from 15 to 25 degrees above normal, are expected across much of the region,

putting daily record highs in jeopardy. However, this pattern is highly

conducive to stability; inversions will likely trap low stratus and fog in

the valleys, particularly across northwest Montana and Clearwater County.

While abundant cloud cover in these areas will limit diurnal heating,

temperatures are still likely to remain above normal.



Looking ahead, ensemble clusters continue to suggest a pattern shift

around Sunday or Monday of next week. Current guidance indicates the

ridge will break down as an upper-level trough digs along the West

Coast. This transition would open the door for increased precipitation

chances and a cooling trend, though confidence regarding the strength

of this system remains low.



&&



.AVIATION...Light showers will linger early this morning across north-central 

Idaho and west-central Montana, with snow levels hovering near 5,000

feet. While precipitation is expected to end by mid-morning, mountain

obscurations will be slower to improve.



High pressure ridging builds this afternoon and persists through the

remainder of the work week. This stagnant pattern is highly conducive to

the development and expansion of low stratus and valley fog. Expect

conditions to deteriorate tonight, particularly across northwest Montana,

where MVFR to IFR conditions may become prevalent in the valleys.

Elsewhere, widespread VFR conditions generally apply under the ridge,

outside of the specific valley fog/stratus layers.





&&



.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MT...None.

ID...None.

&&



$$