FXUS65 KLKN 032123

AFDLKN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Elko NV

223 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



Updated at 132 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025



* Isolated wet and dry thunderstorms through this afternoon and 

  Friday afternoon with lighting and gusty winds.



* High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s through Saturday

  before gradually climbing back well into the 90s with Moderate

  HeatRisk into next week.



* Critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon and evening

  over portions of east-central Nevada due to strong winds and 

  low relative humidity. Other areas will remain elevated.



&&





.DISCUSSION...

(This evening through next Wednesday)

Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025



WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: 



A weak stationary front across southern Oregon and Idaho will be

the focus for continued isolated wet and dry thunderstorms through

this evening. Hi-res guidance brings a slight increase in coverage

with more scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight as a more

pronounced shortwave perturbation moves overhead. Thus, expecting

more activity through the overnight than last night. isolated

showers and thunderstorms early Independence Day look to move out

of the area into the afternoon and evening, with a 25% chance

continuing through the late afternoon across eastern Elko and

White Pine Counties. A breezy afternoon as well across most of the

forecast area with west-southwest winds into the afternoon gusting

from 25 to 30 mph, which will create critical fire weather

conditions across White Pine County. See fire weather section for

more information.



An upper level trough stalls just off the northern California

coast into the first half of next week with the 4 Corners High

intensifying and shifting slightly westward into the second half

of next week for increasing high temperatures into the mid to

upper 90s and expanding Moderate HeatRisk across most of the

valleys of northern and Central Nevada by Tuesday and Wednesday,

which may necessitate additional heat headlines. 





FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:



Moderate confidence in thunderstorms through tonight, though low

confidence on placement and timing this evening. Long range

ensemble guidance is in good agreement on slow building of the

Four Corners High into next week. Moderate confidence on a drier

pattern into next week with placement of the high shunting

monsoonal moisture. 



&&





.AVIATION...



VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hour 

period however thunderstorms this afternoon may bring visibility 

down when passing over the terminals. VCTS expected at all 

terminals, dissipating to calmer skies in the evening with CIG 

levels staying low around FL080 to FL120. Breezy southwesterly 

winds at 10-15 kts, gusts up to 20-25 kts at all terminals. 

Convective wind gusts up to 45 kts are possible from passing 

storms.



&&





.FIRE WEATHER...



Elevated fire weather conditions continue across

all zones due to thunderstorms, elevated winds, and low RH 

values. Elevated to near critical conditions tomorrow with a Red 

Flag Warning issued at NV425. NV426 and NV427 also look to be near

critical, but are not expected to reach red flag criteria.



&&





.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for NVZ425.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...84

AVIATION...97

FIRE WEATHER...97