FXUS65 KLKN 020827

AFDLKN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Elko NV

1227 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1216 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026



* Shortwave trough over northern Nevada today will delay rising 

  temperatures



* High confidence in strong ridging rebuilding across northern and

  central Nevada on Tuesday, bringing the potential for 

  additional near record high temperatures by mid-week



* Low confidence for potential of active weather returning over

  central and northern Nevada early next week



&&





.UPDATE...

Issued at 1216 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026



No changes were made to the forecast at this time.



&&





.DISCUSSION...

(This afternoon through next Sunday)



WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A persistent strong upper ridging over

the western CONUS will keep central and northern Nevada

unseasonably warm for this time of year with temperatures this

afternoon reaching to near record high temperatures. Tomorrow, a

shortwave trough will move across northern Nevada bringing in 

slightly cooler temperatures to delay another gradual temperature

increase. The relief will be short lived as the upper ridge 

strengthens back up on Tuesday, which will form into a Rex Block 

pattern by mid-week and a cutoff low forms over Baja California. 

Additional chances for near record high temperatures exist 

through late week. By the weekend, the Rex Block is not expected 

to last long and will weaken, and the cutoff low will become more

widespread, however will remain dry with temperatures remaining 

unseasonably warm.



Late Sunday into early next week, models are showing the potential

for an active weather pattern for the western CONUS. Discrepancies

in the models will keep a low confidence on the timing and 

position of this system as well as precipitation amounts, 

precipitation type, and temperature.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence with warming

temperature trends under a continuing high pressure ridge. High 

confidence temperatures reaching to near record. Low confidence on

active weather pattern over Nevada early next week. No edits were

made to the NBM grids at this time.



&&





.AVIATION...



VFR conditions persist at all terminals through this afternoon 

under high pressure. No precipitation is forecast and winds will 

remain light through the period.



&&





.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...86/97

AVIATION...86/99