FXUS65 KGJT 221845

AFDGJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO

1245 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Hot and dry weather continues with the opportunity to break

  records by 5-10 degrees much of this week.



- Non-zero precipitation chances for the northern mountains

  Monday with little chance of measurable precipitation.



- Widespread critical fire weather conditions develop under a

  hot, dry, windy regime Wednesday and Thursday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1215 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Warm and Dry Continues



High pressure baking the Southwest continues this week as the 

jet remains arced across the western states and little to no 

cold air/moisture is allowed in. A weak northwesterly wave 

spills over the front of the ridge Monday afternoon and allows a

few clouds to intrude, mostly north of the I-70 corridor. This 

will introduce light POPs across the northern mountains. 

However, the antecedent dry air mass will likely render this a 

moot point and just produce some light virga and no measurable 

precipitation making its way to the surface. This wave quickly 

passes and the ridge regains a stronger foothold Tuesday, 

sending temperatures back up. Afternoon highs Wednesday could 

surpass the recent(March 21, 2026) all time March high for 

Walker Field in Grand Junction, as area temperatures exceed 25 

degrees over normal Wednesday and Thursday.





Critical Fire Weather Conditions



The collapsing ridge Wednesday and Thursday will mix down some

stronger surface winds. Low RH values and gusty winds will

introduce critical fire weather conditions across the region

both afternoons. Winds subside Friday, but continued low

relative humidities and afternoon gusts are expected to keep 

some level of localized critical fire weather conditions in the 

forecast into next weekend.



Looking Ahead



While generally anticyclonic flow continues across the West late

this week, a more progressive pattern evolves allowing

temperatures to adjust to a modest 15-20 degrees over normal.

Deterministic models continue to attempt a pattern shift early

next week, hopefully more than just wishful thinking. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026



VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with

terrain-driven winds. Afternoon gusts up to 20 knots are 

expected at most terminals.



&&



.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...



CO...None.

UT...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...LTB

AVIATION...TGJT