FXUS65 KGJT 120853

AFDGJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO

153 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions dominate the forecast

  through early next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 153 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025



The upper level jet associated with a large cold trough over the

Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region hasn't really left, still

parked to our northeast. This is evidenced by IR satellite

imagery with continued high cloud cover moving across northeast

Utah and northwest Colorado, as well as mountain wave activity

further downstream over the Front Range mountains. A ridge of

high pressure is building across the west, so our weather is

mostly influenced by high pressure with dry conditions and

milder temperatures with highs expected to continue being in the

10 to 15 degrees above normal range at least through the

weekend. Mostly sunny skies will be the rule with relatively 

light winds although gusty conditions are possible over the 

highest ridges due to the presence of this upper level jet. The 

influence of the northern jet will also keep scattered high 

clouds in the picture mainly across the north through the 

weekend. 



Some low level moisture remains trapped in the cold pool 

basins, such as the Gunnison River Basin, resulting in patchy 

low stratus and fog at times early this morning. Expect this to 

slowly erode as drier air continues to move in with conditions 

less supportive of fog tonight as the jet slowly lifts further 

to the northeast and high pressure slowly nudges eastward on 

Saturday. Did lower temperatures a bit in these cold pool 

basins, due to inversions setting in and relatively stable 

conditions with limited mixing.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 153 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025



Conditions remain largely unchanged through early next week 

with unseasonably warm and dry conditions driving the forecast. 



A pattern change is possible around the middle of next week 

with westerly flow bringing a slight uptick in moisture to 

locations along and north of Interstate 70. Unfortunately both 

moisture and forcing look limited, so the best we can hope for 

is a few periods of upslope precipitation over the northern 

mountains given the projected synoptic setup. Valleys along and 

north of I-70 and most locations south of I-70 favor a dry week 

ahead.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 944 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025



The Gunnison TAF will be the outlier of this forecast with a

layer of ground fog drifting across the airfield at times. MVFR

to LIFR conditions will be most likely if it plays out similar

to last night with temporary VFR through mid morning before

things clear. Otherwise light winds and VFR under passing high

clouds will dominate the forecast for the remaining TAF sites.



&&



.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...



CO...None.

UT...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MDA

LONG TERM...KAA

AVIATION...TGJT