FXUS65 KGGW 221914

AFDGGW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Glasgow MT

114 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Cooler weather for the rest of today along with patchy fog, and

  scattered rain and snow showers in the east.



- A ridge helps temperatures rebound tomorrow through Wednesday,

  and some marginal fire weather conditions are expected on

  Wednesday. 



- Additional rain and snow chances look to come back Tuesday 

  through Thursday with cooler temperatures on Thursday.









&&



.DISCUSSION...



WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: 



Cooler temperatures in place will be accompanied by additional 

rain and snow showers through about 5 pm today along with patchy 

fog. This activity is mainly north and east of highway 200 toward

the North Dakota border based on current observations. In the west

and south, patchy fog and precipitation chances are more spotty.



Temperatures are expected to rebound Monday through Wednesday as

the ridge over the southwest part of the country pushes back

northward. A stationary front over central Montana and a weak cold

front on Tuesday is expected to bring an opportunity for

precipitation, with the most likely chance of accumulation

occurring north of the Missouri River in the form of a rain snow

mix. There are expected to be lingering rain and snow chances on 

Wednesday and Thursday, but little to no accumulation is 

anticipated. There is a marginal fire weather situation and

elevated conditions on Wednesday as strong winds and low humidity

combine together in the afternoon, but recent precipitation may 

hinder the desire to issue any fire weather products. A cold front

on Wednesday night is expected to drop temperatures to near to

slightly below normal on Thursday before a ridge moves back

northward starting Friday. This is according to the latest GFS 

ensemble.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Made a deviation to the winds by cranking them up a bit with a

combination of NBM and NBM 90. Mainly used NBM 90 winds and wind

gusts with the oncoming low pressure center on Monday night into

Tuesday. Increased PoPs in the east through 22Z manually.



There is high confidence in precipitation ending by 6 PM this

evening and high temperatures for today struggling to reach the

base NBM forecast.



There is high confidence in precipitation occurring on Tuesday

into Wednesday, with moderate confidence in forecast accumulation

amounts for the area.



There is low to moderate confidence in precipitation occurring on

Wednesday into Thursday, as well as for fire weather products

being issued for Wednesday. 



There is moderate to high confidence in temperatures Thursday

onward.



&&



.AVIATION...



LAST UPDATE: Sunday March 22 at 1845Z



FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR - IFR



DISCUSSION: A shortwave trough is moving through the area to

bring some lingering chances for precipitation. With this

disturbance, there is high confidence of MVFR to IFR ceilings 

being in place through 22Z before conditions improve to VFR 

status. With any rain and snow showers that occur at TAF sites, 

there is moderate confidence of visibility dropping to MVFR. 



WIND: Southwest at 7 to 15 knots becoming west northwest at 10 to

19 knots after 20Z, becoming northwest at 10 to 19 knots after

21Z, becoming light and variable after 03Z. For KGGW after 04Z,

southeast at 9 to 14 knots, decreasing to light and variable after

11Z. 



&&



.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



weather.gov/glasgow