FXUS65 KGGW 020452

AFDGGW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Glasgow MT

1052 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGES:



- Hot conditions remain in place through Thursday, before turning

  cooler for the holiday weekend.

 

- Scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms Wednesday 

  will bring potential for strong to severe wind gusts.



- A more active pattern will maintain daily chances for showers

  and thunderstorms into early next week.





WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper ridge will be building across the region over the next 

few days, bringing hot and dry weather through midweek. Wednesday 

is expected to be the hottest day, with high temperatures in the 

mid 90s to lower 100s. A Heat Advisory has been maintained for 

much of northeast Montana, with potential expansion if the 

50th-75th percentile of the NBM verifies for more widespread 

readings at or above 100. Thursday afternoon looks to be a few 

degrees cooler due to increased cloud cover, but this will limit 

overnight recovery. 



Ensembles show upper ridging sliding east ahead of the next low 

pressure system for the midweek. This will set up a more active 

weather pattern with increased low-level moisture heading into the

4th of July holiday. Daily chances for thunderstorms return in 

the afternoon and evening hours starting Wednesday. The primary

severe threat for Wednesday looks to be focused between 5-11pm for

wind downbursts. Temperatures will begin trending much cooler 

into the weekend with 70s for highs by Saturday.





FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

The NBM was used for the forecast population with minimal 

deviation needed to capture expected trends. Confidence is high on

mainly warm and dry weather through the next couple of days, 

while still medium for the occurrence of widespread triple digit 

heat. Confidence is described as growing on increasing chances for

thunderstorms to return each day starting Wednesday.





&&



.AVIATION...



LAST UPDATED: 0445Z



FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

 

DISCUSSION: High pressure across the area will mean mostly clear 

to partly cloudy skies, with little to no daytime convective 

development through around 21Z Wednesday. Thunderstorms will begin

to develop after 21Z and last through 06Z Thursday night. 



WIND: SE to E and light through tonight. Becoming SE and 10 to 20

kts Thursday afternoon thorugh the Thursday night.



GAH





&&



.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Central and 

Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Dawson-Garfield-

McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-

Southwest Phillips-Western Roosevelt.





&&



$$



weather.gov/glasgow