FXUS65 KFGZ 272142

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

143 PM MST Mon Oct 27 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Breezy northeast winds and slightly cooler

temperatures are expected along and north of the Mogollon Rim on

Tuesday. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions with generally light 

winds are forecast from Wednesday into the weekend. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...Dry west to northwest flow continues this afternoon

over the region, with temperatures running 5-10 degrees above late

October averages. Surface high pressure will build southward into

our region later tonight through Wednesday morning, in the wake of

a trough moving into the plains states. This will shift our winds

around to northeasterly and usher in somewhat cooler air from the

Mogollon Rim northward. Afternoon highs are forecast to drop 5-10

degrees on Tuesday in these areas. South of the rim, downsloping

will actually cause temperatures to warm a few degrees.

Northeasterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected late tonight into

Wednesday morning. Some gusts in the 25-35 mph range are likely in

the favored downslope locations south of the Mogollon Rim. With

much drier air moving in, areas that manage to decouple and

experience light winds overnight will see their coldest low 

temperatures of the season so far by early Wednesday morning. This

includes the valleys north of the Mogollon Rim, including the 

Little Colorado River valley and the Chinle Valley where the first

sub-freezing temperatures of the season are forecast. 



Wednesday afternoon through the weekend - high pressure is

forecast to build over the southwest US. Our region will be in a

dry northwest flow, with generally light winds and above normal

daytime temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION...Monday 27/18Z through Tuesday 28/18Z...VFR conditions. 

Winds are W to NW 5-15 kts through 06-07Z. After 07-08Z, winds 

becoming N to NE at 5-15 kts. Locally gusty along/downwind of 

terrain features overnight, including KSEZ.



OUTLOOK...Tuesday 28/18Z through Thursday 30/18Z...VFR conditions. 

Winds north to northeast at 10-15 kts on Tuesday, subsiding to 

5-10 kts on Wednesday. Locally gusty northeast winds at 15-25 kts 

downwind of the terrain Tuesday night, light and VRB on Wednesday 

night.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Wednesday...Dry with mild 

daytime temperatures. Northeasterly winds at 10-20 mph starting 

tonight and continuing Tuesday. Winds become east to northeast 5-15 

mph on Wednesday. Locally gusty winds 15-25 mph along/downwind of 

terrain features tonight, and up to 25-35 mph Tuesday night. Minimum 

RH is 10-20% each day.



Thursday through Saturday...Dry and mild. Winds are generally west 

at 10 mph or less on Thursday, then west to northwest at 5-15 mph 

Friday and Saturday. Afternoon minimum RH generally 10-20% each day.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...JJ

AVIATION...Lewandowski

FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff