FXUS65 KFGZ 270450

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

950 PM MST Sun Oct 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions expected through the week. Seasonably 

warm temperatures persist tomorrow, before northeasterly flow 

late-Monday through Wednesday will lead to a cooling trend for 

areas along/north of the Mogollon Rim. Temperatures return to 

above normal by late week as high pressure builds. 





&&



.DISCUSSION...Breezy conditions with southwest gusts near 30 mph 

are being observed this afternoon as a trough passes to the north 

of the state. Localized areas of elevated winds overnight,

particularly downwind of terrain features. By tomorrow, the 

trough axis pushes east and lighter winds will accompany slightly 

above normal daytime temperatures. 



Ensemble guidance is in agreement for flow to turn north/northeast 

late Monday-Wendesday, leading to a cooling trend along/north of the 

Mogollon rim. There is some disagreement on the magnitude of this 

cooling, and the NBM is on the colder side of ensemble guidance. The 

current forecast calls for about a 5-10 degree drop in the high 

temperature from Monday to Tuesday for areas north of the Mogollon

Rim. Areas south of the Rim will see a much smaller temperature 

difference. Temperatures are forecast to recover to near/above 

average by Thursday and continue to warm as a ridge builds through

the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION...Monday 27/06Z through Tuesday 28/06Z...VFR conditions. 

Winds S/SW 5-10 kts, becoming W/NW after 18Z. Locally gusty SW winds 

through 12Z downwind of terrain features.



OUTLOOK...Tuesday 28/06Z through Thursday 30/06Z...VFR conditions. 

Winds N/NE 10-15 kts on Tuesday, subsiding to 5-10 kts on Wednesday. 

Locally gusty NE winds 15-25 kts downwind of the terrain overnight.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Tuesday...Dry with mild 

temperatures. Breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph early this evening, 

then localized southwest breezes continuing overnight downwind of 

terrain features. West to northwest winds 5-15 mph Monday, shifting 

to northeasterly 10-20 mph late Monday night through Tuesday. 

Afternoon minimum RH 15-25% Monday, 10-20% Tuesday. 



Wednesday through Friday...Dry and mild. North to northeast winds

5-15 mph Wednesday, light and variable Thursday, then west to 

northwest 5-15 mph Friday. Afternoon minimum RH generally in the 

teens.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Lewandowski

AVIATION...Humphreys

FIRE WEATHER...JJ



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff