FXUS65 KFGZ 221056

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

356 AM MST Sun Mar 22 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Summer-like high pressure will continue this week, 

with temperatures reaching up to 25 degrees above normal. Please 

exercise appropriate precautions if you are planning on any 

outdoor activity. Breezy southwest winds and low humidity are also

expected.



&&



.DISCUSSION...The unseasonably strong ridge has shifted slightly

southward and is centered from NW Mexico west into the Pacific 

this morning. This will result is just a slight drop in high

temperatures today and Monday, but still breaking daily records

and reaching 20 degrees above normal. West to southwest winds will

also pick up a bit Monday to 10-15 mph gusting up to 25 mph.

Combined with low humidity, elevated fire weather conditions will

develop so please use caution.



Tuesday and Wednesday - the ridge is forecast to shift back north

over Arizona, bringing several degrees of warming to near 80F in

the mountains and mid-upper 90s for the lower elevations of

Yavapai County and the Grand Canyon.



Thursday into next weekend - overall model trends are for the

ridge to gradually shift southeast of the state and weaken

slightly. Daily highs will drop a few degrees, but still 20

degrees above normal and likely hitting records again. Just beyond

our 7-day forecast (Sun/Mon Mar 29-30) much of the model data is 

suggesting an increase in moisture from the south due to the more 

favorable ridge position. This would bring a chance of convection

if it pans out, favoring the eastern half of the state. For now,

our forecasts include a 20-30% chance of rain showers by next

Sunday.



&&



.AVIATION...Sunday 22/12Z through Monday 23/12Z...VFR conditions.

Light and variable winds this morning, becoming SW-W 5-15 kts 

with gusts to 20 kts 18Z-02Z. 



OUTLOOK...Monday 23/12Z through Wednesday 25/12Z...VFR conditions

with daytime SW-W winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts becoming 

light and variable each night.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Very dry and just a bit cooler 

with record high temperatures around 20 degrees above normal 

continuing. West-southwest winds 5-10 mph gusting to 20 mph today, 

increasing to 10-15 mph gusting 20-25 mph Monday. Minimum RH 7-12% 

each afternoon. 

  

Tuesday through Thursday...Little change in high temperatures. 

Daytime winds west-southwest at 10-15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph. 

Minimum RH values 6-13% each afternoon. The continuation of 

unseasonable heat and very dry conditions will dry out fuels with 

elevated fire weather conditions possible.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ006-037.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...JJ

AVIATION...JJ

FIRE WEATHER...JJ



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff