FXUS65 KFGZ 092322

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

422 PM MST Fri May 9 2025



.SYNOPSIS...An area of high pressure will bring above normal

temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the weekend.

However, there is a very slight chance for high elevation showers

on Saturday. A larger storm system will bring cooler and gustier 

conditions next week. There is a potential for wind gusts over 40

to 50 mph on Monday and Tuesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...High pressure is peaking over the southwest US this

afternoon through Saturday, with well above normal temperatures. This

is also producing a east to southeast flow across our region with

some gusts in the 20-25 mph range. Just enough instability 

remains along the AZ/NM state line for a low chance (10-15%) of a few

showers/sprinkles late this afternoon. On Saturday, the

east/southeast low level flow is forecast to pull in some limited

moisture. This moisture, combined with strong daytime heating, 

may allow for some isolated convection on the higher terrain and 

we currently have a 10-20% chance of an afternoon shower or 

thunderstorm along the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns and in the Chuska 

Mtns/Defiance Plateau. This would be mostly high-based with only 

light rainfall but some localized gusty/erratic winds.



Sunday through Wednesday - the ridge is forecast to be suppressed

south of our area as a deep trough approaches from the northwest.

The main impact on northern Arizona will be a significant 

increase in southwesterly winds. Gusts on Sunday are forecast to 

be 25-30 mph. Monday and Tuesday look like the windiest days with 

35-45 mph gusts Monday and 40-50+ mph Tuesday. NBM probabilities 

for gusts >57 mph (corresponding to warning criteria) are in the 

10-30% range right along the downslope areas off the Mogollon 

Rim/White Mtns on Tuesday, including Eagar/Springerville, Show 

Low, Vernon, and areas just east of Flagstaff. Watch for possible

Wind Advisories for Monday, and Wind Advisories and/or more 

localized High Wind Warnings on Tuesday. Temperatures remain warm

through Monday, then drop several degrees below normal Tuesday 

and Wednesday. At this time, moisture and precipitation with this

trough is forecast to remain north of the state.



&&



.AVIATION...Saturday 10/00Z through Sunday 11/00Z...VFR expected

with easterly winds 5-15 kts. 



OUTLOOK...Sunday 11/00Z through Tuesday 13/00Z...Mainly VFR 

expected. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA into Saturday evening over the higher 

terrain. SW 15-25 kts on Sunday, increasing to 25-35 kts on 

Monday.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Above normal temperatures and 

mostly dry conditions expected each day. On Saturday, expect a very 

slight chance for high-based showers and thunderstorms across the 

higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Variable and less than 10 to 15 

mph on Saturday, becoming southwesterly 15 to 25 mph on Sunday.



Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures after Monday cool to below 

normal readings by Wednesday, especially eastern and central zones. 

Dry conditions will persist, with minimum relative humidity values 

mainly below 20 percent. Southwest winds increasing to 15 to 30 mph 

with gusts as high as 45 mph for Monday, decreasing slightly from 

west to east each day Tuesday and Wednesday.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...JJ

AVIATION...Meola

FIRE WEATHER...Peterson



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff