FXUS65 KFGZ 091111

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

411 AM MST Fri May 9 2025



.SYNOPSIS...An area of high pressure will bring above normal

temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the weekend.

However, there is a very slight chance for high elevation showers

on Saturday. A larger storm system will bring cooler and gustier 

conditions next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge is over much of the Southwest,

resulting in above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

Expect daytime highs to land 5-10 degrees above normal through the

weekend, with mostly light winds. There is a chance a smidge of

moisture will creep into the state on Saturday, as the ridge is

more centered across western Arizona. Even with the potential weak

moisture push, activity will likely be limited to higher terrain.

And of this activity, we could see an isolated thunderstorm or two

due to the daytime heating combined with any orographic lifting. 



A large area of low pressure is forecast to push down the

California Coast by the beginning of next week, weakening the

previously mentioned ridge. As a result, daytime highs will 

slowly drop to below normal and winds will increase out of the 

southwest. We could see gusts between 35-45 mph, with locally

stronger gusts across downslope areas. Dry conditions are expected

during this timeframe, but with the recent moisture, fire weather

concerns are minimal. Model guidance suggests that we'll remain 

under a deep trough pattern through much of next week, but 

moisture appears to stay north of our state. There's still time 

for things to change, but for now, expect cooler and windier 

conditions moving into next week.



&&



.AVIATION...Friday 09/12Z through Saturday 10/12Z...VFR conditions

forecast through the period. Light and variable winds expected to

continue until 18Z, with E winds 5-15 kts afterwards. Overnight 

winds expected to return to light and variable or terrain driven.



OUTLOOK...Saturday 10/12Z through Monday 12/12Z...Mostly VFR

conditions expected, with brief -SHRA/-TSRA across higher terrain

on Saturday between 18Z-00Z. Look for SE winds 5-15 kts on 

Saturday, becoming S-SW 10-20 kts on Sunday. Wind gusts could 

reach near 30 kts on Sunday too. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Above normal temperatures and 

mostly dry conditions expected each day, outside of a slight chance 

for showers/thunderstorms across higher terrain on Saturday. Look 

for easterly winds 5-15 mph today, becoming more southeast on 

Saturday.



Sunday through Tuesday...A cooling trend will occur each day, 

landing daytime highs 2-8 degrees below normal by Tuesday. Dry 

conditions will persist with minimum RH values generally 20% or 

less. Look for southwest winds 10-20 mph on Sunday, increasing to 15-

25 mph Monday and Tuesday. Wind gusts near 40 mph possible on 

Monday and Tuesday afternoon as well.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Konieczny

AVIATION...Konieczny

FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff