FXUS65 KFGZ 090352 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 852 PM MST Thu May 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will result in above normal temperatures through the weekend. A minor increase in moisture brings a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms to the high country on Saturday. A larger storm system will bring cooler and windier conditions next week. && .UPDATE...Skies have cleared out and we are now in for some quiet weather through the next couple of days. Dry and warmer conditions will be the main story as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area. Forecast is in great shape and only minor edits were needed this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION /511 PM MST/...High pressure is strengthening over the southwest US this afternoon, centered over NV/CA. This is producing a northeasterly flow across our region, and while dewpoints are still up in the 30s in most areas, it is more stable today as temperatures aloft have warmed. Just enough instability remains along the AZ/NM state line for a few showers this afternoon. By Friday and Saturday, the ridge peaks over our region leading to some of the warmest temperatures of the year so far (mid/upper 70s mountains to 90s lowest elevations). Low level flow continues from the east, pulling in some limited moisture on Saturday. This moisture, combined with strong daytime heating, may allow for some isolated convection on the higher terrain and we currently have a 10-20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns and in the Chuska Mtns/Defiance Plateau. This would be mostly high-based with only light rainfall but some localized gusty/erratic winds. Sunday through Tuesday - the ridge is forecast to be suppressed south of our area as a deep trough approaches from the northwest. The main impact on northern Arizona will be a significant increase in southwesterly winds. Gusts on Sunday are forecast to be 25-30 mph. Monday and Tuesday look like the windiest days with 35-45 mph gusts Monday and 35-50+ mph Tuesday. NBM probabilities for gusts >57 mph (corresponding to warning criteria) are in the 10-25% range right along the downslope areas off the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns on Tuesday, including Eagar/Springerville, Show Low, Vernon, and areas just east of Flagstaff. Temperatures remain warm through Monday, then drop several degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION...Friday 09/00Z through Saturday 10/00Z...VFR conditions. Winds N-NE 5-15kts becoming light and variable or terrain driven overnight by 02Z. NE winds 10-15kts again by 17Z. OUTLOOK...Saturday 10/00Z through Monday 12/00Z...VFR conditions expected. Other than a couple isolated showers or thunderstorms in the White Mountains region Saturday, no precipitation expected. Light winds at night, SE-S 5-10kts Saturday, S-SW 10-20kts Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Mainly dry with the exception being a isolated showers or thunderstorms over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Saturday. Temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Winds NE-E 10-15 mph Friday, SE-S 5- 10 mph Saturday. Minimum RH values dropping to 15-25%. Sunday through Tuesday...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue. Areas of Critical Fire Weather conditions possible Monday and Tuesday. Winds SW 10-20 mph on Sunday, SW 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph on Monday, SW 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph on Tuesday. Minimum RH values 10-25% each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola/JJ AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff