FXUS65 KFGZ 070452

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

952 PM MST Wed May 6 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers or thunderstorms in northern Apache

County will end early this evening, with otherwise dry conditions.

Fair and much warmer weather moves in on Thursday and continues 

into next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough diving through southwest Colorado

is bringing some isolated shower activity to northern Apache

County this afternoon. Otherwise, dry and less cool conditions

prevail, with breezy west to northwest winds gusting around 25

mph. Any showers in northeast Arizona will end quickly late this

afternoon. Starting Thursday, high pressure will build across our 

region, leading to a strong warming trend that will continue well 

into next week. Daily high temperatures are forecast to reach 

10-15 degrees above normal from Friday onward. Winds will become 

north/northwest Thursday and Friday, becoming more westerly by 

Saturday. While winds speeds will be relatively light for this 

time of year, gusts up to around 25 mph are still expected Friday 

and Saturday. As we get into early next week, much of the forecast

guidance is indicating that the ridge axis will slide just east 

of our area, resulting in a more southerly flow and advecting in 

some increased mid level moisture. Daytime heating will lead to 

some afternoon cloud buildups over the higher terrain, with some 

high-based showers or thunderstorms not out of the question. Rain

chances are still 15% or less for now, mainly next Tuesday and 

Wednesday. Again, this would be high-based activity with little 

rainfall but localized gusty winds.



&&



.AVIATION...Thursday 07/06Z through Friday 08/06Z...VFR

conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable

overnight, except KSEZ which will see NE 10-15kts, gusts to 20kts.

Daytime winds N-NE 5-15kts tomorrow.



OUTLOOK...Friday 08/06Z through Sunday 10/06Z...VFR conditions, no

precipitation expected. Daytime winds NW 10-20kts Friday and

Saturday, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.





&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry conditions, turning 

warmer. Light and variable winds on Thursday, then becoming 

west/northwest 5-15 mph on Friday. Minimum afternoon RH 8-15%.



Friday through Sunday...Continued warm and dry conditions. Winds 

west/northwest 5-15 mph on Saturday, light and variable on Sunday, 

then becoming southwest 5-10 mph on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-

15% each day.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...JJ

AVIATION...Bernhart

FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff