FXUS65 KFGZ 052140 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 240 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Monsoon activity will increase today and perhaps again on Thursday, before tapering off a bit Friday. Due to the lack of widespread thunderstorm activity, very hot conditions will also persist through at least Friday. Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to increase over the weekend and especially during next week, as high pressure moves back a favorable position. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure centered near Safford continues to provide conflicting shear profiles and steering flow for our area. Convection today remains unorganized, but may come together for this evening, as outflow boundaries run into the deeper moisture south of the Mogollon Rim. Nocturnal activity is a definite possibility for eastern and southern Yavapai County this evening. Heading into Thursday and Friday, the high starts to move northward into a more favorable position, but will then strengthen. This and the possibility of debris cloud Thursday morning may keep convection down a little bit, while temperatures stay hot. We are holding the EHW for the Colorado River elevations through Friday. By the weekend and into early next week. The mid-level high remains in a favorable position, the cap weakens and moisture will continue to move north each day. We could very well be back into a high grade Monsoon pattern by early next week. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 05/18Z through Thursday 06/18Z...VFR conditions, brief MVFR possible near heavier showers/storms. Scattered showers/storms mainly south of I-40 from 19Z-06Z. Winds SW-W 5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds possible near and ahead of storms. OUTLOOK...Thursday 06/18Z through Saturday 08/18Z...VFR conditions, brief MVFR near showers/storms. Scattered showers/storms expected each day between 18Z-03Z and possibly lasting until 06Z. Winds SW-W 5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain overnight. Gusty and erratic winds possible near and ahead of storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Continued warm with daytime highs 5-10 degrees above average. Showers and thunderstorms likely each afternoon, starting on Mogollon Rim and Kaibab Plateaus expanding south and westward as the afternoon progresses. Winds W 5- 15 mph daytime, becoming light/terrain driven overnight. Minimum RH values between 10-15% northeast high deserts, 20-30% other locations. Saturday through Monday...Daytime highs will remain 5-10 degrees above normal through the weekend. Isolated showers/thunderstorms on Saturday, becoming more widespread by Sunday and Monday. Winds SW-W 5-15 mph daytime, light/terrain driven overnight. Minimum RH values 7-25% Saturday, 10-30% Sunday, 15-40% Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for AZZ005 and AZZ006 below 4000 feet. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff