FXUS65 KFGZ 051115

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

415 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures, mainly dry conditions and 

occasional breezes are expected through the weekend. Despite the 

dry forecast, a few instances of flooding continue. Stay away 

from waterways and if you come to a flooded road, turn around, 

don't drown.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Look for a mainly dry weather pattern well into next

week. A weak and dry flow develops aloft today, leading to light 

and variable surface winds at 5-10 mph under mainly clear skies 

with nearly steady high/low temperatures.



A weak trough drops southward across Arizona on Friday before 

heading further south over the weekend. As the trough passes 

through on Friday, there will be just enough lingering moisture 

and forcing for the development of instability showers over a few

higher terrain areas with daytime heating. Consequently, a slight

chance of showers is expected over the Mogollon Rim, White 

Mountains and Chuska Mountains Friday afternoon into the early 

evening. Any precipitation amounts will be minimal and snow levels

around 9000' are forecast. Behind the trough on Saturday and 

Sunday, high pressure will build over the Great Basin. Pressure 

gradients for north to northeast flow will then develop with 

locally gusty winds developing, particularly Saturday. Most areas

will see north to northeast winds at 10-20 mph but for locations 

where northeast winds get funneled along and south to the Mogollon

Rim, with localized gusts of 30-40 mph likely based on latest 

ensemble guidance.



For next week, it looks like fair weather will hold through at 

least Wednesday with a lack of dynamics and dry northerly flow in

place.



&&



.AVIATION...Thursday 05/12Z through Friday 06/12Z...VFR 

conditions with winds NW-NE at 5-10 kts. Locally breezy winds 

downwind of the terrain overnight.



OUTLOOK...Friday 06/12Z through Sunday 08/12Z...VFR conditions.

Isolated -SHRA/-SHRASN Friday afternoon/evening. Winds N/NE at 5-15

kts both Friday and Saturday, with stronger gusts over the higher

terrain Saturday - such as around 25 kts at KFLG.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday..Mainly dry conditions with 

seasonably cool temperatures. The only exception is a few isolated 

rain or high elevation snow showers over the White Mountain region 

Friday afternoon/evening. Winds Thursday will be light and variable 

winds at 5-10 mph, then N-NE at 5-15 mph Friday. Expect minimum RH 

around 30%-50% each day. 



Saturday through Monday...Mainly dry conditions and seasonable 

temperatures continue. Winds becoming N-NE at 10-20 mph on Saturday, 

NE-E at 5-15 mph Sunday, light and variable Monday. Minimum RH's 25-

40% each day.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Zanker

AVIATION...Zanker

FIRE WEATHER...Zanker



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff