FXUS65 KFGZ 032320 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 420 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue through most of the week before slight chances for some mountain showers arrive Friday and into the weekend. Gusty northeast winds are expected through Thursday with Wednesday being the windiest day of the week. More chances for showers are expected next week. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure will be the dominant feature across northern Arizona through Thursday. Look for little change in high/low temperatures under just a few high level cirrus. A weak shortwave trough was brushing Arizona Tuesday afternoon but will head rapidly eastward overnight. Sinking motion behind the trough will strengthen surface high pressure over the Colorado Plateau which in turn will strengthen surface pressure gradients. The result will be the development of locally gusty northeast winds which will linger into Thursday, especially from the Mogollon Rim southward. The strongest winds will be on Wednesday when north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with local gusts to 30 mph are expected. On Friday and over the weekend...A weak and complicated troughing pattern will develop over Arizona. Overall, dynamically induced upward forcing with this trough will be weak. However, enhanced moisture and colder mid-level air associated with the low will combine with daytime heating to produce slight chances for afternoon and evening showers over the mountains. Nothing significant anticipated here with snow levels 7500 to 8500 and any heavier shower activity spotty at best. From Monday onward...It is looking like a more active pattern will develop over the western States as the polar low over Canada and the persistent longwave trough across the eastern United States breaks down. The door will likely open to unsettled and cooler conditions with a good chance of mountain snow and lower elevation rain at times. We'll have to get closer in time to pin down timing, amounts and snow levels. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 04/00Z through Thursday 05/00Z...Expect VFR conditions. Winds generally N-E 10-20kts and mainly in the daytime. However, locations along and just SW of higher terrain may see gusts as high as 25-30kts Wednesday afternoon. ENE drainage winds 10-20kts just SW of higher terrain again tonight, which includes terminal KSEZ. OUTLOOK...Thursday 05/00Z through Saturday 07/00Z...Expect VFR conditions, isolated -SHRA on Friday, mainly W and NW of terminal KFLG. Winds mainly light, but ENE drainage winds 15-25kts just SW of higher terrain again Wednesday night, which includes terminal KSEZ. Drainage winds decrease after Wednesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry with daytime temperatures 10-15 degrees above average. Winds NE 10-20 mph Wednesday, E-NE 5-10 mph on Thursday. Minimum afternoon 15-25% each day. Friday through Sunday...Look for a slight chance of showers each day over the high terrain but no wetting rain is expected. Daytime high temperatures each day remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Winds S-SW 5-10 mph on Friday, light and variable under 10 mph on Saturday and Sunday. Minimum afternoon RH values 20-35% on Friday and Saturday, 20-30% Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff