FXUS65 KFGZ 031739

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

1039 AM MST Thu Jul 3 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are

expected again today. Drier and very warm conditions return for 

the holiday weekend, with a weak return of moisture next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Plentiful moisture remains over the region, with

scattered light showers continuing as of 2 AM over northeast AZ

with some heavier showers/storms in western parts of the state. An

upper trough is located over southern California this morning, and

this is forecast to shift eastward over the state through this

afternoon. Weak lift and additional instability from mid-level

cooling is expected to result in scattered to widespread showers

and thunderstorms through early this evening. While much of the

stronger storms are likely to be in the afternoon, with the

approach of the trough there could be storms during the morning

hours as well, especially from around Flagstaff westward. With

CAPE values 750-1200 J/kg forecast, some stronger storms with some

mostly small hail, locally heavy rainfall/flooding, and gusty

outflow winds will all be threats.



After this trough moves by, the flow will turn more westerly as

stronger ridging develops to our southeast and gradually shifts

toward AZ. So an abrupt downturn in storm activity is expected on

Friday and Saturday, with no storms Friday and only a 10-20%

chance in southern Apache County for Saturday. Sunday through the

middle of next week, model guidance indicates a strong high

pressure system setting up across the southwest United States.

Temperatures will rise several degrees above normal, with a chance

for heat products once again for the lower portion of Grand Canyon

and possibly the lower elevations of Yavapai County as well.

Moisture return will depend on where the center of the high

pressure system sets up, with a slow return of limited moisture in

the ensemble forecast mean. Low storm chances return to the

forecast. It should be noted that most of this is coming from 

GEFS/Canadian with very little precipitation shown in the EC.



&&



.AVIATION...Thursday 03/18Z through Friday 04/18Z...Isolated

-SHRA/-TSRA will quickly become scattered to widespread,

 continuing through 03Z Friday. Heavier showers could bring brief

 drops to MVFR conditions, and erratic gusty outflow winds. Winds

 are SW-W 5-15 kts away from storm activity, then light and VRB

 overnight.



OUTLOOK...Friday 04/18Z through Sunday 06/18Z...VFR conditions.

Slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA on Saturday afternoon SE of a KPAN-

KSJN line, dry otherwise. SW winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts on

Friday, becoming W-SW around 10 kts on Saturday.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Friday...Additional showers and 

thunderstorms are expected today, before much drier conditions 

return on Friday. Minimum RH values look to drop from 20-40% today 

to 10-20% on Friday. Outside of gusty storm-driven winds, look for 

south through west winds 10-20 mph.



Saturday through Monday...Hot and dry conditions expected through 

Saturday, before a weak monsoon pattern sets up for next week. 

Minimum RH values look to generally be between 10-20% each 

afternoon, with light southwest winds. Precipitation chances 

Sunday and Monday look to be mostly Flagstaff eastward.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...JJ

AVIATION...Lewandowski

FIRE WEATHER...JJ



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff