FXUS65 KFGZ 031036

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

336 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue through most of the 

week before slight chances for some mountain showers arrive for 

Friday into the weekend. Gusty northeast winds are expected through 

Thursday with Wednesday being the windiest day of the week. More 

chances for showers are expected next week. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...High pressure dominates the weather across the Desert 

Southwest through Thursday before a low pressure system brings in 

chances for mountain showers for Friday and into the weekend. 

Another system may bring additional showers to the region next week. 



Today will be another day of sunny skies and mild temperatures 

across the forecast area. Northeast winds will return as a shortwave 

passes off to the north of the region. Winds will remain 

northeasterly through Thursday as the high builds over the Great 

Basin. The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday with gusts of 

25-30 mph, especially to the south and east of the higher terrain. 

As the high weakens and pushes off to the north, we should see winds

start to subside a bit on Thursday. Temperatures may dip slightly

over the next couple of days but will still remain 5-15 degrees 

above normal. 



By Wednesday, a low pressure system develops off the Baja California 

coast. The low moves slowly as the high blocks it off from moving 

much northward or inland. As the high starts to weaken, the low will 

be able to move northward, though most model solutions keep the 

center located offshore. The flow around the low will switch the 

winds from a northeast direction to a more southerly direction. This 

will allow for better moisture advection into the region and we 

should see increasing clouds for Thursday and continuing through the 

weekend. While moisture still appears somewhat limited with this 

system, there should be enough lift to support some isolate to 

scattered showers, mainly over the higher terrain. Snow levels are 

on the higher side (>7500-8000 ft) so expect mainly rain showers 

with some isolated pockets of snow showers. With the low remaining 

just offshore through the weekend, there may continue to be some 

isolated mountain showers through Sunday. 



As we head into next week, we see a trough start to dig down from 

the Pacific Northwest and should approach our area in the early to 

midweek period. This system looks to have more moisture with it and 

we may have some better chances for showers across the area. 

Something to watch as we look to settle into a slightly more active 

pattern. 



&&



.AVIATION...Tuesday 03/12Z through Wednesday 04/12Z...VFR 

conditions with N/NE winds 5-10 kts. Elevated NE winds 10-20 

kts downwind of the higher terrain during the overnight hours.



OUTLOOK...Wednesday 04/12Z through Friday 06/12Z...VFR conditions. 

Winds NE 5-15 kts on Wednesday, becoming E/NE 5-10 kts on Thursday. 

Elevated NE winds 15-25 kts downwind of the higher terrain during 

the overnight hours.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Dry and mild conditions, with 

north/northeast winds 5-15 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% 

today, increasing to 15-25% on Wednesday.



Thursday through Saturday...Dry and mild conditions continue, 

outside of a slight chance for showers over the high terrain Friday 

and Saturday. Winds north through east 5-10 mph on Thursday, 

becoming south/southwest on Friday and Saturday. Minimum afternoon 

15-25% on Thursday, increasing to 25-40% on Friday and Saturday.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Meola

AVIATION...Humphreys

FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff