FXUS65 KFGZ 030918 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 218 AM MST Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again today. Drier and very warm conditions return for the holiday weekend, with a weak return of moisture next week. && .DISCUSSION...Plentiful moisture remains over the region, with scattered light showers continuing as of 2 AM over northeast AZ with some heavier showers/storms in western parts of the state. An upper trough is located over southern California this morning, and this is forecast to shift eastward over the state through this afternoon. Weak lift and additional instability from mid-level cooling is expected to result in scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms through early this evening. While much of the stronger storms are likely to be in the afternoon, with the approach of the trough there could be storms during the morning hours as well, especially from around Flagstaff westward. With CAPE values 750-1200 J/kg forecast, some stronger storms with some mostly small hail, locally heavy rainfall/flooding, and gusty outflow winds will all be threats. After this trough moves by, the flow will turn more westerly as stronger ridging develops to our southeast and gradually shifts toward AZ. So an abrupt downturn in storm activity is expected on Friday and Saturday, with no storms Friday and only a 10-20% chance in southern Apache County for Saturday. Sunday through the middle of next week, model guidance indicates a strong high pressure system setting up across the southwest United States. Temperatures will rise several degrees above normal, with a chance for heat products once again for the lower portion of Grand Canyon and possibly the lower elevations of Yavapai County as well. Moisture return will depend on where the center of the high pressure system sets up, with a slow return of limited moisture in the ensemble forecast mean. Low storm chances return to the forecast. It should be noted that most of this is coming from GEFS/Canadian with very little precipitation shown in the EC. && .AVIATION...Thursday 03/06Z through Friday 04/06Z...Areas of -SHRA and ISO -TSRA continues to move northward overnight. SCT TSRA/SHRA re-develops after 18Z, mainly north of a KPRC-KPAN-KJTC line, and continues through 03Z. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic outflow winds expected in and around TS. Winds SE-SW 5-10 kts overnight, becoming W/SW after 18Z. OUTLOOK...Friday 04/06Z through Sunday 06/06Z...ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible Friday afternoon in vicinity of KSOW/KJTC. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic outflow winds expected in and around TS. Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds S/SW 10-15 kts on Friday, subsiding to 5-10 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Friday...Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected today, before much drier conditions return on Friday. Minimum RH values look to drop from 20-40% today to 10-20% on Friday. Outside of gusty storm-driven winds, look for south through west winds 10-20 mph. Saturday through Monday...Hot and dry conditions expected through Saturday, before a weak monsoon pattern sets up for next week. Minimum RH values look to generally be between 10-20% each afternoon, with light southwest winds. Precipitation chances Sunday and Monday look to be mostly Flagstaff eastward. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff