FXUS65 KFGZ 022320

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

420 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Look for dry weather, gusty northeast winds and little 

change in temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. Slight chances for 

mountain showers and a bit cooler temperatures arrive on Friday and 

over the weekend, associated with a minor weather disturbance. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...High pressure will dominate the weather across

northern Arizona through Thursday. Look for little change in

high/low temperatures under just a few high level cirrus. The only

feature of note will be a weak shortwave trough brushing the 

northeast corner of Arizona from Tuesday into Thursday. Sinking 

motion behind the trough will strengthen surface high pressure 

over the Colorado Plateau which in turn will strengthen surface 

pressure gradients across central and southern Arizona. The net 

result, gusty northeast winds starting later on Tuesday and 

lasting into Thursday, especially from the Mogollon Rim southward.

Winds will be strongest on Wednesday when north to northeast at 

10 to 20 mph with local gusts to 30 mph are forecast. Winds will 

linger into Thursday but diminish through the day.



From Friday onward...A weak and complicated low pressure system will

develop over Arizona. Overall upward forcing with this low will be

weak. However, the additional moisture and cold mid-level air 

associated with the low will result in slight chances for 

afternoon and early evening showers with daytime heating, mainly 

over the mountains. Nothing significant anticipated here with snow

levels 7,500 to 8,500 and any heavier shower activity spotty at 

best. The next best chance for a decent storm won't be until the 

middle of next week. Otherwise, look for light south to southwest 

breezes and a bit cooler daytime temperatures. 



&&



.AVIATION...Tuesday 03/00Z through Wednesday 04/00Z...Expect VFR 

conditions. Sfc winds generally light, but trending ENE by Tuesday 

afternoon. Areas just SW of higher terrain features will see ENE 

drainage winds 10-20kts tonight, including terminal KSEZ.



OUTLOOK...Wednesday 04/00Z through Friday 06/00Z...Expect VFR 

conditions. Sfc winds mainly N-E5-15kts both days, but gusts up to 

20-25kts possible over higher terrain in the daytime and just SW of 

higher terrain features at night.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry conditions with 

daytime temperatures 10-15 degrees above average. Winds N-NE 5-15 

mph on Tuesday, N-NE 10-20 mph on Wednesday. Afternoon minimum RH 

10-20% both days.



Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions with daytime temperatures 

5-10 degrees above average. Winds E 5-15 mph on Thursday, then SW 5-

10 mph on Friday and Saturday. Minimum RH is 15-25% on Thursday, 20-

40% on Friday, 20-35% on Saturday.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...McCollum

AVIATION...Peterson

FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff