FXUS65 KFGZ 022250

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

350 PM MST Wed Jul 2 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Widespread to scattered showers and thunderstorms 

through Thursday. Drier and very warm conditions return for the 

holiday weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Widespread convection as expected today, with outflow 

boundaries now back-building into the prevailing southerly flow. 

This is a concern, as storm motion is slowing down and some training 

has developed. Additionally, there are some modest dynamics over the 

western and central zones due to a s/wv ejecting from the California 

coast. This may prolong convection into the evening, especially from 

the I-17 corridor westward. Not sure how far west the outflows will 

propagate, for now, we are thinking to about the Prescott area.



As convection slowly winds down tonight, the trough axis from the 

ejecting low will approach the Lower Colorado River. The trough axis 

will then be a focal point for convection Thursday, largely from the 

I-17 corridor eastward.



Behind the trough axis, expect much drier and more stable air 

heading into Friday and the weekend. Simultaneously, a high will 

build from the east. We expect a significant warming trend as a 

result, with subdued convective chances, probably just the White Mtn 

zones from Friday onward, maybe sneaking a bit back westward early 

next week.



&&



.AVIATION...Thursday 03/00Z through Friday 04/00Z...Scattered

-SHRA/-TSRA forecast through at least 04Z, but isolated showers

 could continue through the overnight/early morning hours. After

 18Z, more widespread SHRA/TSRA likely. Reduced visibilities from

 heavy rain likely in stronger storms. Winds will gradually

 decreasing overnight and become variable, but gusty/erratic

 outflow winds near 25-35 kts possible through 04Z. Additional

 breezy W winds 10-20 kts after 18Z, with storm driven gusts up to

 40 kts. HZ/FU possible near KRQE from a nearby wildfire.



OUTLOOK...Friday 04/00Z through Sunday 06/00Z...Mostly VFR 

conditions expected through the outlook period. Some brief MVFR 

conditions possible between 00Z and 06Z Friday due to 

-SHRA/-TSRA. Look for SW-W winds 10-20 kts each afternoon with

 gusts up to 25 kts. Gusty and erratic winds possible near 

 showers/storms. 





&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Rest of Today through Friday...Showers and 

thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours tonight. 

Heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds are the primary concerns with 

storms this afternoon/evening. Additional showers/thunderstorms 

forecast for Thursday afternoon, before much drier conditions return 

on Friday. Minimum RH values look to drop from 20-40% on Thursday to 

10-20% on Friday. Outside of gusty storm-driven winds, look for 

south through west winds 10-20 mph.



Saturday through Monday...Hot and dry conditions expected through 

the weekend, before another monsoon pattern sets up for next week. 

Minimum RH values look to generally be between 10-20% each 

afternoon, with light southwest winds. Precipitation chances on 

Monday look to be mostly Flagstaff eastward.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Peterson

AVIATION...Konieczny

FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff