FXUS65 KFGZ 022020

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

120 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Look for dry weather and gusty northeast winds 

with little change in temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. 

Slight chances for mountain showers and a bit cooler temperatures 

arrive on Friday and over the weekend with a minor weather 

disturbance. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...High pressure will dominate the weather across

northern Arizona through Thursday. Look for little change in

high/low temperatures under just a few high level cirrus. The only

feature of note will be a weak shortwave trough brushing the 

northeast corner of Arizona from Tuesday into Thursday. Sinking 

motion behind the trough will strengthen surface high pressure 

over the Colorado Plateau which in turn will strengthen surface 

pressure gradients across central and southern Arizona. The net 

result, gusty northeast winds starting later on Tuesday and 

lasting into Thursday, especially from the Mogollon Rim southward.

Winds will be strongest on Wednesday when north to northeast at 

10 to 20 mph with local gusts to 30 mph are forecast. Winds will 

linger into Thursday but diminish through the day.



From Friday onward...A weak and complicated low pressure system will

develop over Arizona. Overall upward forcing with this low will be

weak. However, the additional moisture and cold mid-level air 

associated with the low will result in slight chances for 

afternoon and early evening showers with daytime heating, mainly 

over the mountains. Nothing significant anticipated here with snow

levels 7,500 to 8,500 and any heavier shower activity spotty at 

best. The next best chance for a decent storm won't be until the 

middle of next week. Otherwise, look for light south to southwest 

breezes and a bit cooler daytime temperatures. 



&&



.AVIATION...Monday 02/18Z through Tuesday 03/18Z...VFR conditions,

no precipitation expected. Winds W-NW 5-10kts daytime, light and

variable or terrain driven overnight, especially KSEZ where winds

could reach NE 10-15kts, gusts 20-25kts. 



OUTLOOK...Tuesday 03/18Z through Thursday 05/18Z...VFR conditions,

no precipitation expected. Daytime winds N-NE 5-10kts Tuesday, NE

10-20kts Wednesday. Light and variable or terrain driven

overnight. KSEZ could see elevated NE winds overnight hours at

10-20kts, gusts 20-30kts.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry conditions with 

daytime temperatures 10-15 degrees above average. Winds N-NE 5-15 

mph on Tuesday, N-NE 10-20 mph on Wednesday. Afternoon minimum RH 

10-20% both days.



Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions with daytime temperatures 

5-10 degrees above average. Winds E 5-15 mph on Thursday, then SW 5-

10 mph on Friday and Saturday. Minimum RH is 15-25% on Thursday, 20-

40% on Friday, 20-35% on Saturday.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...McCollum

AVIATION...Bernhart

FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff