FXUS65 KFGZ 020910

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

210 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue through the week. 

Gusty northeast winds develop on Tuesday and continue through 

Thursday. Slight chances for showers arrive towards the end of the 

week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...High pressure dominates the weather across the Desert 

Southwest through midweek before low pressure brings in some slight 

chances for showers at the end of the week. 



Another quiet weather day across the region as high pressure 

continues to keep us warm and dry. Winds will be west to northwest 

today with just some high clouds passing through. A weak shortwave 

will move through the forecast area on Tueday, shifting winds to the 

north to northeast and becoming a bit gusty as the pressure gradient 

tightens up. High pressure builds over the the Great Basin through 

midweek, keeping the northeasterly flow across our area through 

Thursday. Temperatures may dip slightly but will remain 5-15 degrees 

above normal. 



By Wednesday, we start to see a low pressure develop off the Baja 

California coast. The low moves slowly as the high blocks it off 

from moving inland. By Thursday, there are signs that the high 

starts to break down. This will allow for some of the energy 

associated with the low to move northward and into the state. 

Temperatures will remain warm with increasing cloud cover as the mid 

level moisture increases. As far as precipitation goes, moisture 

looks to be rather limited and outside of some slight chances for 

showers over the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim into the 

White Mountains, it looks to remain dry through the weekend. Another 

low may develop and move into the region late in the weekend into 

early next week, so we may have more chances for some showers on the 

way. 



&&



.AVIATION...Monday 02/06Z through Tuesday 03/06Z...VFR conditions

forecast to continue. Look for light and variable winds through

21Z, with W-NW winds 5-15 kts expected afterwards. 



OUTLOOK...Tuesday 03/06Z through Thursday 05/06Z...VFR conditions

expected through the period. Look for light and variable winds

through 18Z Tuesday, becoming N-NE 5-10 kts afterwards. By 04Z

Wednesday, mostly light and variable winds will return but 

localized NE gusts downwind of higher terrain will likely continue

overnight. North through east winds 10-20 kts forecast by 18Z 

Wednesday.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Dry conditions with above 

normal daytime temperatures. Winds are west through northwest 5-15 

mph today, turning north through northeast on Tuesday. Afternoon 

minimum RH between 15-30% Monday, then 10-20% on Tuesday.



Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions with above normal 

temperatures continue. Winds are north through northeast 10-20 mph 

on Wednesday, becoming east 5-15 mph on Thursday, then turning 

southwest on Friday. Minimum RH is 10-25% on Wednesday and Thursday, 

then 20-30% on Friday.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Meola

AVIATION...Konieczny

FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff