FXUS65 KFGZ 020459

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

959 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Fair and mild weather will characterize much of the

coming week with daytime highs remaining well above normal. Gusty

northeast winds will develop on Tuesday with a passing weather

disturbance, lingering into Thursday. Low pressure will then deliver

slight chances for showers later on Friday into next weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...High pressure will dominate the weather across 

Arizona through Thursday before a weak closed-low introduces 

slight chances for showers later on Friday into next weekend.



Through Thursday...Persistent high pressure will deliver fair 

weather. Daytime high temperatures are forecast to remain 10 to 

15 degrees above average with overnight lows hovering near 

normal. Winds west to northwest at 5 to 15 on Monday becoming 

north to northeast at 5 to 15 gusting to locally 25 mph later on 

Tuesday as surface pressure gradients strengthen behind a passing 

shortwave disturbance. Surface gradients will strengthen further 

on Wednesday with winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph locally gusting

to 30 mph. The gusty northeast winds will likely linger into 

Thursday, gradually weakening through the day. Other than that, 

look for varying amounts of high level cirrus.



From Friday onward...A closed-low will develop off the

California/Baja California coast. The main result will be a bit 

cooler daytime temperatures and winds shifting to a more southerly

direction. Model forecasts have converged on a solution that 

essentially keeps the low center wobbling from just off the Baja 

California to over the Baja peninsula/southern California (the 

wobble has to due with the closed-low interacting with weak 

shortwave disturbances passing over the western states). The 

result will be a bit cooler temperatures in the mid-levels and the

transport of limited moisture from the south. Forcing will be 

essentially nonexistent with this pattern but the combination of 

moisture and cooler mid-levels will result limited chances for 

showers in the afternoon with daytime heating. Snow levels at 

this time look to range from 7,500 to 8,500 feet.



&&



.AVIATION...Monday 02/06Z through Tuesday 03/06Z...VFR conditions

forecast to continue. Look for light and variable winds through

21Z, with W-NW winds 5-15 kts expected afterwards. 



OUTLOOK...Tuesday 03/06Z through Thursday 05/06Z...VFR conditions

expected through the period. Look for light and variable winds

through 18Z Tuesday, becoming N-NE 5-10 kts afterwards. By 04Z

Wednesday, mostly light and variable winds will return but 

localized NE gusts downwind of higher terrain will likely continue

overnight. North through east winds 10-20 kts forecast by 18Z 

Wednesday.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry conditions with 

temperatures continuing to be 10-15 degrees above average. Winds W-

NW 5-15 mph on Monday, N-NE 5-15 mph on Tuesday. Afternoon minimum 

RH between 15-30% Monday, drops to 10-25% on Tuesday.



Wednesday through Friday...Dry with temperatures still 5-10 degrees 

above average. Winds N-NE 10-20 mph on Wednesday, NE-E 5-10 mph on 

Thursday, light and variable under 10 mph on Friday. Minimum 

afternoon RH 10-20% for Wednesday and Thursday, increasing to 20-30% 

on Friday.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...McCollum

AVIATION...Konieczny

FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff