FXUS65 KCYS 030555 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1155 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and daily chances for PM showers and thunderstorms will continue late this week and into the weekend. - Temperatures drop back down closer to near normal for Independence Day but afternoon showers or thunderstorms could impact festivities. - High pressure to the south could drive daily shower and thunderstorm chances in the long term while keeping us close to near seasonable for temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Summer heat continues today as we see widespread temperatures into the 80's and 90's with a few reports from the border of Wyoming through the NE Panhandle showing near to triple digits even. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are also seen on radar, but with parameters low overall not expecting much aside from an occasional gusty wind or perhaps very isolated small hail, but this remains unlikely, with this activity limited to areas generally west of I-25. The ridge producing this activity holds on control through this evening, but our next trough passes across the region on Thursday and brings a more widespread shower and thunderstorm risk. Overall severe parameters are on the low side, with instability generally light, MUCAPE around 300-700 J/kg though some isolated pockets of higher instability may develop, and bulk shear averaging 30 knots or less in the beginning through later part of the afternoon. Because of this, storms should mostly be sub-severe, though an occasional marginally severe storm can't be fully ruled out. The jet should start to kick in just a little bit more by the late evening hours, but activity should be waning by then to help preclude a more robust severe event. This incoming system alongside widespread cloud cover will limit temperatures on Thursday for areas west of the Laramie Range, and we should see temperatures drop back down closer to normal just in time for Independence Day by Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The bad news for Independence Day is that we can expect another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon, so some celebrations may be briefly interrupted by some diurnally driven precipitation. This could continue into the long term as we monitor high pressure developing over the desert southwest which will bring a more westerly to northwesterly flow to the region alongside daily shower and thunderstorm chances from multiple smaller systems rounding the base of this feature, with temperatures heading back to near normal for the region. Some of these days could see marginally stronger to near severe storms, so we will need to continue to monitor as we move into the long term as this pattern develops. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Upper level ridge axis is forecast to lift northeast into the Great Plains tonight as a broad Pacific trough of low pressure moves into Utah and western Colorado by early Thursday. A round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and west of the I-25 corridor Thursday afternoon through late Thursday evening with some heavy rainfall possible. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions expected over the next 12 hours with midlevel clouds gradually lowering and thickening for KRWL, KLAR, and possibly KCYS. South winds will occasionally be gusty overnight, especially around KCDR, KLAR, and KRWL. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to quickly develop after 18z Thursday and likely impact KLAR and KRWL. A period of steady and heavy rainfall may impact these terminals by 00z with MVFR conditionspossible. Further east, precipitation and thunderstorms will likely hold off until 00z to 06z Friday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...TJT