FXUS65 KBYZ 061851 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1251 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday. - Another round of showers and weak thunderstorms late Friday through Saturday. - Above normal temperatures and drier conditions forecast Sunday through the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of Today through Next Tuesday... Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will continue through this afternoon, ahead of an approaching shortwave. Models continue to show a moderate to high chance of precipitation as this wave moves through the area late this evening through Thursday. The best chance of precipitation exists in the mountains and the south- central zones. Warm temperatures are forecast for Thursday in the 60s to low 70sF and moisture availability will increase with ensembles depicting precipitable water anomalies of 100 to 150%. HiRes models are showing modest instability tomorrow, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE. With that said, rain showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening. While severe storms are not expected, stronger showers and any thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief, moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Look for breezy winds ahead of the wave late this afternoon and evening, with gusts of 15 to 30 mph (greatest around and west of Billings). These winds will diminish a bit Thursday morning before picking up into the afternoon again across the area. Precipitation will gradually come to an end from NW to SE late Thursday night, as brief ridging rebuilds for Friday. The current forecast has high temperatures in the 70sF and little to no chance of precipitation. Models and ensembles continue to show a shortwave trough moving through the Northern Rockies late Friday through Saturday, bringing another increased chance of showers. There remains uncertainty on the extent of precipitation though the chance for at least 0.1" of liquid is low to moderate for southeast MT. Models are showing little CAPE on Saturday so strong storms are not expected but a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Saturday does have breezy to gusty winds with pressure rises across the area. Gusts are forecast in the 20s to 45 mph. A backdoor cold front moves into the area Saturday night though little impacts are anticipated with this, overnight lows are forecast in the 30s to low 40s. Otherwise, ridging and northwest flow aloft returns Sunday into the new week. High temperatures are currently forecast in the 70s and 80sF, along with drier conditions. Matos .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail today ahead of our next weather system that will bring scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area tonight into Thursday. With this activity, the main threats are brief MVFR conditions under heavier showers or thunderstorms and gusty and erratic winds. While MVFR conditions could occur at any point tonight into Thursday, the gusty and erratic wind threat is mainly just tonight into early Thursday morning. Over the mountains, the rain and snow showers, combined with scattered to broken low to mid clouds, will also cause periodic mountain obscurations tonight into Thursday. Otherwise, look for the breezy westerly winds today to decrease this evening before increasing and turning out of the northwest Thursday. Arends && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 046/068 045/076 053/069 043/081 052/082 050/078 049/080 56/T 20/B 12/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/B LVM 043/068 040/073 047/069 040/080 049/080 046/078 046/079 32/T10/B 00/N 00/B 00/N 01/U 01/N HDN 038/068 041/075 048/068 040/079 047/082 046/077 045/080 26/T 20/B 15/T 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B MLS 035/068 041/075 048/065 040/075 047/080 047/075 046/078 01/E 20/B 47/T 00/U 00/N 21/B 01/B 4BQ 033/066 042/071 048/064 039/074 046/079 047/074 045/077 03/T 20/B 37/T 20/U 00/U 00/B 11/B BHK 027/064 037/071 044/063 036/071 043/079 043/073 042/076 01/B 10/B 15/W 00/B 00/N 01/B 11/B SHR 034/063 037/069 042/064 036/074 042/078 042/074 041/076 26/T 30/B 35/T 10/U 00/N 02/T 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings