FXUS65 KBYZ 021737 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 1037 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy conditions are forecast across the western foothills today, with gusts 40-55 mph. Gusts 30-45 mph will be common across the plains. - Mostly dry and very warm with periods of gusty winds along the western foothills through the next 7 days. - Increased grass fire concerns across the area this week. && .UPDATE... Windy conditions continue this morning with gusts in the 30s and 40s mph across the forecast area. The threat for stronger gusts (up to 55 mph) in the western foothills has ended as well. A weak shower or two is possible in the east into the early afternoon. The forecast remains in good shape. Matos && Today through Sunday... .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery early this morning showed the next shortwave to impact the region tracking through northern Montana. Westerly winds were increasing along the western foothills, where winds were gusting in the 30s and 40s mph. As the wave continues to approach, winds aloft will increase (700mb winds of 40-55kts), causing winds over the western foothills to gust into the 40s and 50s mph. The probability of gusts of 60 mph or greater is roughly 30-50% from Livingston to Nye and up through Big Timber and Harlowton along the US-191 corridor. Strongest wind gusts over the western foothills will likely be into the morning hours. As the wave drops through eastern MT and into the Dakotas, gusty winds will spread across the plains this morning into the afternoon, bringing wind gusts into the 30s and 40s mph. There remains a low chance (15-35%) for rain/snow showers over the east later this morning into the afternoon, and any accumulations will be light. Winds will decrease across the area into the evening for most locations, while winds will remain somewhat breezy over the western foothills. The IDA-LWT pressure gradient will remain around 10 mb, allowing for wind gusts into the 40s mph for Livingston to Nye. Another shortwave is progged to drop into the area from the northwest late tonight into Tuesday morning bringing west to northwest winds in the 20s and 30s mph, along with low to moderate chances for rain/snow, greatest on the W-NW facing slopes in the southern mountains. The Bighorn mountains look to be most favored, with a couple inches of snowfall forecast. Across the east, there are low chances (less than 20%) for some mixed precipitation Tuesday morning before temperatures warm. While this does not look to be widespread, it is something worth monitoring. Strong ridging looks to settle in over the region through the remainder of the week ahead continuing well above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. High temperatures most days are forecast from the 40s to 60s, coolest east. Temperatures look to be warmest on Thursday, where most guidance shows highs in the middle 60s over central and western areas, though there is a clustering of models showing the potential for temperatures approaching or exceeding 70 degrees for some areas. Due to the persistent dry, occasionally breezy, and very warm conditions, there is an elevated risk for grass fires this week. Be careful to not cause a spark. STP .AVIATION... Widespread west to northwest gusts of 25-35 kts will continue through early afternoon and end by this evening. Over the western foothills (KLVM, K6S0, and K3HT), gusts will increase again overnight into Tuesday to 30-40 kts. Isolated showers east of KBIL will end early this afternoon. A round of isolated to scattered rain/snow showers will move through beginning Tuesday morning. Archer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 058 036/054 029/059 038/064 034/061 036/060 036/062 0/N 22/R 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B LVM 051 035/049 031/059 036/060 034/060 034/055 036/055 0/N 11/N 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B HDN 058 031/055 026/061 035/066 029/061 032/060 031/063 0/N 22/R 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B MLS 052 028/048 023/054 036/060 028/054 031/052 030/057 1/N 22/O 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 4BQ 052 031/048 026/056 038/062 030/059 032/056 031/058 1/N 22/O 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U BHK 043 024/043 022/049 032/054 026/050 027/047 026/052 3/W 12/S 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B SHR 052 026/047 023/058 033/063 029/061 031/057 029/060 0/N 34/O 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings