FXUS65 KBOU 270703

AFDBOU



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

103 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Storm system to bring snow to the mountains (mainly northern 

  mountains) tonight and into Monday.



- Windy conditions Monday across the mountains, foothills, and 

  plains. The windy conditions will prevail again Tuesday over the

  plains. 



- Scattered showers Monday afternoon and early evening over the 

  eastern plains with a slight chance for thunderstorms.



&&



.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...

Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Oct 26 2025



A broad and somewhat disorganized upper level trough will move 

across the Northern Rockies tonight and Monday. This initial 

shortwave is not as deep as models earlier showed. Thus, the 

leading jet is farther north with the best lift north of Colorado.

Lowered PoPs and snowfall amounts for tonight. It's possible only

the far northern mountains see snowfall tonight. Expect a mild 

night across the urban corridor and eastern plains due to cloud 

cover and winds helping to keep the air somewhat mixed. Lows are 

only expected to drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s. 



A second shortwave trough moves across Wyoming Monday, helping to

push the jet southward. This expected to bring a better chance 

for snowfall to the mountains Monday. The trough dives southeast 

and strengthens late Monday and Tuesday. By late Tuesday it will 

develop into a closed low over eastern Kansas. As this trough 

passes just east of Colorado, a cold front drops south across the 

area bringing rain showers to the eastern plains Monday afternoon 

and early evening. The airmass will be unstable as well with 

SBCAPE up to 400 J/kg, so a couple of storms will be possible as 

well. Can't rule out a little snow as well during the evening, but

it appears the cold air arrives too late for the rain to change 

to snow. Windy conditions will spread across the area Monday with 

gusty west to northwest winds. Wind gusts to 50 mph will be 

possible in the foothill and near the Wyoming border. Windy 

conditions are expected again Tuesday across the eastern plains as

north-northwest flow aloft increases around the upper level low 

off to the southeast. Cooler air will move southward into the area

with highs in the mid to upper 40s Tuesday. Skies clear and and 

winds become light Tuesday night, leading to the coolest 

temperatures so far this fall with lows in the 20s across 

northeast Colorado. Some teens will be possible in the cooler 

locations. 



North-northwest flow aloft continues into Wednesday, but ridging 

starts to take place bringing dry conditions, less wind, and a 

warming trend. Temperatures are still expected to be below normal 

with highs in the lower to mid 50s across northeast Colorado. 



Ridging across the western part of the country and a large trough

across the east will dominate the weather pattern across the 

country Thursday through next weekend. For Colorado, we'll see a 

dry northwest flow aloft with no precipitation under this pattern.

Temperatures will be near normal Thursday and Friday. For next 

weekend, if the ridging builds eastward as most of the models 

show, temperatures will climb above normal. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/...

Issued at 1248 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Drainage winds will weaken overnight tonight with light and

variable winds taking over. The HRRR has been consistent in

showing a northerly push of winds between 16-18Z at KDEN. Gusts up

to 15 knots are possible out of the north but light and variable

winds are just as likely to occur. The most impactful aspect of

today's forecast is the timing of the strong west-northwesterly

wind development. The most likely time is between 18-20Z for DEN,

17-19Z for APA, and 16-18Z for BJC. Gusts between 35-40 knots

could occur at all terminals. 



A cold front will move through the terminals between 23-01Z late

this afternoon. Winds will shift to the north with gusts up to 25

knots. While most models don't indicate precipitation could fall

during this time, the models seem too dry. Rain showers could

occur especially at DEN and APA if there ends up being more

moisture than forecast. Ceilings down to 5,000 feet would be the

only impact from these showers. Northerly flow will continue

throughout most of the night Monday night. 



&&



.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...12

AVIATION...Danielson