FXUS65 KBOU 222017 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 217 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool this afternoon, but warming trend returns to start the week. - Record heat likely (80-90% chance) again Tuesday and Wednesday across much of the region. Another chance at all-time monthly records possible again on Wednesday (20-30% chance). Record heat may linger into Thursday as well. - Elevated to critical fire weather concerns by mid-week as a result of the exceptionally warm and dry conditions. - Briefly cooler again to end the week, but well above normal temperatures still forecast for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 131 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026 It's been a cool, almost seasonable day today. While afternoon temperatures are fairly close to normal for this time of year (mid/upper 50s), the calendar day high will still end up 10 degrees above normal for DEN (68F) since it took quite a while to cool off Saturday night. Most of the afternoon hours should remain relatively quiet with just a few clouds through the evening. Today's cooler temperatures won't last, as an anomalously strong ridge builds back across the southwestern U.S. on Monday. The mid-level thermal ridge should start to expand, with 700mb temperatures reaching +6 to +8C. That should be enough to get forecast highs back into the low 70s across most of the Denver metro. The ridge is expected to continue to strengthen on Tuesday and Wednesday... with 500mb heights peaking at ~591dam by Wednesday afternoon. To put that in perspective... 500mb standardized height anomalies are near 2-3 sigma here, and 700mb temperature anomalies are closer to 3-4 sigma... which are both well outside the the CFSR climatology. Meanwhile, ECMWF EFI values are basically just at 1 (on a scale of -1 to 1)... indicating a remarkably consistent signal for record breaking heat. Indeed, our latest gridded forecast would shatter a couple more daily high temperature records for DEN on Tuesday (76, forecast 82F) and Wednesday (75, forecast 89). It's possible that many locations that already broke their all-time monthly high temperature records for March may see those newly established records challenged. Thursday is a bit more of a question mark, as a weak shortwave and a fairly strong cold front approach the forecast area. Will that front arrive in time to keep Thursday cool, or will we once again flirt with record high temperatures? Guidance offers very little confidence in either of these two solutions, with the GEFS notably quicker with the front, while the ECMWF ensemble continues to trend slower with the frontal passage. Our forecast still lies near the mean of these two solutions, though the overall distribution of ensemble members is distinctly bimodal. There is higher confidence that Friday will see a return to near normal temperatures, but there is a strong signal for above normal temperatures to return by next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/... Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026 The low clouds have mainly scattered out this morning, leaving some areas with a few deck around 2000 to 4000ft. Clouds should continue to lift as we go into the afternoon. Winds are light as of late this morning, with winds variable or from the NE. Winds will turn clockwise with increasing wind speeds as we go into the evening. Winds will pick up around 5Z from the SSE at KAPA and KDEN, with gusts around 20 to 25kts. Winds will continue to strengthen, peaking between 7Z and 11Z, with occasional gusts into the lower 30kts possible. Winds will then weaken, becoming SSW at KAPA and light and variable at KDEN before turning more NNE for the late morning/early afternoon. At KBJC, winds will remain on the lighter side, with multiple hours of variable winds overnight before turning more consistently northerly by tomorrow morning. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hiris AVIATION...AP