FXUS65 KBOU 092346

AFDBOU



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

546 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warm weather continues through early next week. Still a few late

  day showers and storms most days mainly over the higher terrain

  today and Saturday.



- Well above normal temperatures likely Monday and Tuesday, with

  the potential for upper 80s possible across the plains.



- Increasing chances for elevated/critical fire weather conditions

  by Monday and Tuesday of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025



The synoptic pattern will change very little over the next couple

of days, as a broad ridge slowly drifts eastward. Temperatures

should continue warming this weekend with highs in the upper 70s

to perhaps low 80s across the plains. Enough moisture remains

trapped under the ridge for at least a few showers and

thunderstorms across the higher terrain, though most of this

activity should stay weak.



The flow aloft should gradually strengthen out of the southwest by

early next week, as a strong trough drops from the Pacific

Northwest into the intermountain west. We look to be on track to

see the two warmest days of the year so far in response to the

increasing mid-level temperatures/downslope flow on Monday and

Tuesday. Nearly all (MOS/Deterministic/Ensemble) guidance hints at

upper 80s across the Denver metro, and it wouldn't be surprising

to see some 90F readings across the lower elevations. 



The drier, windier conditions during this timeframe could also 

lead to some fire weather concerns across much of the CWA. GEFS

HDWI (Hot Dry Windy Index) plumes do show at least modest

probabilities of exceeding at least the 75th percentile, with

higher probabilities south/west of our forecast area. Ultimately 

it is too soon to talk in details, but fire weather products may 

eventually be needed.



The aforementioned upper trough is expected to eject into the

northern Great Plains by mid-week, with weaker zonal flow behind

it. Temperatures should cool closer to normal values in this

period, with a modest increase in showers/storms across the CWA.

Greater model spread is also noted by the end of next week, though

the overall pattern does look active across the region. 



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/...

Issued at 541 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025



Models have winds getting to normal drainage patterns by no later

then 05Z this evening. They should remain pretty weak overnight. 

There should not be any ceiling or visibility issues; VFR will 

prevail.



&&



.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Hiris

AVIATION.....rjk