FXUS65 KBOU 031751 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1051 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and slightly cooler through Wednesday. - Quick-hitting light snow showers likely (60-70% chance) for the mountains starting Tuesday morning, and Palmer Divide Tuesday late afternoon, ending late Tuesday night. Lower chances (20-50%) elsewhere. Any accumulations will be light. - Warm and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week through the weekend. - Pattern change likely next week, finally! && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1100 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 A disturbance in NW flow aloft will move across the area Tue aftn into Tue night. Latest cross-sections show enough moisture to bring a good chc of light snow to the mtns mainly in the aftn and evening hours. At lower elevations, cross-sections are showing a dry layer in the boundary layer thru early Tue evening with some saturation after 03z. Overall, with northerly low level flow, this would favor areas of the Palmer Divide for some light snow Tue night. For Wed an upper level high will build over the Great Basin into Colorado with dry northerly flow aloft across the area. By Thu, this upper level high will shift a bit eastward into wrn Colorado. Overall, this will lead to a dry pattern both days, with temps well above normal by Thu, as readings reach the lower to mid 60's over nern CO. By Fri, the upper level high will weaken, however, an upper level ridge will still linger over the area as weak upper level trough develops over the swrn US. As a result, this will lead to another dry day with highs well above normal normal. Looking ahead to the weekend, the weak upper level trough over the swrn US will shift southward with weak flow aloft across the area. Cross-sections show very little moisture either day so dry conditions will continue with above normal temperatures. Finally, peering into the longer term, eventually may see a pattern change by the early to middle part of next week as an upper level trough affects the area. As a result, would see temperatures drop back to more seasonal levels with a good chc of precip. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1051 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026 A cold front is heading for the terminals, with the stronger north-northwest winds expected by 19Z. By 21Z gusts are expected in the 25-30 kt range, but generally from due north. At BJC, the winds may be more NNW. Behind the front, it remains very dry but we do expect some light precipitation to develop after 21Z. It may not reach the ground. If it does, it will likely start out as rain/sprinkles, but change over to snow by 00Z. With or without snow reaching the ground, MVFR conditions are likely with the virga. We are continuing to use PROB30 to highlight the light precipitation, because of the low overall potential for precip reaching the ground. After 03 or 04Z precipitation chances and potential for MVFR CIGs drop significantly at DEN and BJC, and by 05-06Z at APA. Winds will also decrease significantly after 00Z, but remain out of the north most of the night at DEN and APA. BJC will probably be light and west tonight. Expect VFR all day long tomorrow with light north winds from late morning into the evening hours. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...Schlatter