FXUS65 KBOU 030557 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1057 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and slightly cooler through Wednesday. - Quick-hitting light snow showers likely (60-70% chance) for the mountains starting Tuesday morning, and Palmer Divide Tuesday late afternoon, ending late Tuesday night. Lower chances (20-50%) elsewhere. Any accumulations will be light. - Warm and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week through the weekend. - Pattern change likely next week, finally! && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1255 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 Main concern for the short term will be a fast moving disturbance bringing a chance of light snow to the area. Cross sections show an increase in mid level moisture in northwest flow tonight, and further increase Tuesday as a weak disturbance but a 120-130 kt upper level jet streak race into northern Colorado. The flow turns more north/northwest in this period, which will be strong orographics. Unfortunately, moisture is limited. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if a couple mountain slopes received at least a couple inches of snow or more given the strong orographics. If only moisture was more abundant - seems to be the theme this season! In the lower elevations, it appears deep north/northwest flow will strengthen and persist Tuesday afternoon and night. Again, the biggest challenge will be to saturate the mid levels sufficiently for any chances of snow. Given the slight downslope component and weak downward QG forcing, it does not look favorable especially for the northern plains. However, the EC did offer up a little more hope with a slightly farther west jet streak. In addition, while deep northerly flow is not great for snow production over vast majority of our plains, it does offer up a pretty healthy upslope component for the Palmer Divide. Thus, we'll keep higher PoPs there for late Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night. Any accumulation there looks light (less than 1"), although a few of the models would say a couple inches possible for higher end amounts if the jet streak does end up farther west. Areas from roughly Denver to the north and east will see lower chances of any snow and should mostly be flurries to 0.5" for any locations that do see it. Temperatures stay slightly cooler (but still a few degrees above normal) into Wednesday. Winds are expected to decrease and sunshine will return. For the extended period, we see high confidence in the return to much above normal temperatures for Thursday through the weekend with a blocking/high amplitude ridge shifting only slowly east across the Rocky Mountain region. High temperatures will likely (>70% chance) reach the 60s on the plains and I-25 Corridor during this period, with a low probability (20% chance) of hitting 70F by Friday. If anything changed it was the slight undercutting of the ridge by a weak disturbance this weekend. At this time, don't think it would end up being more than just a slight cooldown and a couple showers for the mountains. For those waiting for some more meaningful precipitation or at least a chance of it, there are changes in the long term. It appears the blocking ridge that dominated the western U.S. over the last couple months is finally breaking down early next week. Most ensembles offer up a change in the weather with increasing chances of precipitation toward Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, possibly starting as early as Monday. That's on the very edge of our 7 day forecast, but at least we'll have a better opportunity to start building onto our minuscule Colorado snowpack. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1038 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions expected through at least Tuesday afternoon. Winds are currently transitioning to drainage flow, and will stay below 15 kts overnight. For tomorrow, confidence remains high that winds will become NW by 17Z/18Z, with gusts up to 25-30 kts possible, particularly between 20Z and 01Z. There is a 20-30% chance of light rain/snow showers as early as 22Z for all TAF sites, along with lowering of ceilings. However, due to the NNW flow at BJC, downsloping winds may hinder any precipitation chances. A PROB30 is still in place for all terminals. Guidance has been consistent with ceilings dropping to 6000 ft at their lowest by 02Z. By that time, temperatures are expected to drop below freezing, which would support all snow. Ceilings should begin gradually lifting after 06Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...MAI