FXUS65 KBOU 021800

AFDBOU



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

1200 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Hot today. Any thunderstorm activity confined to mountains.



- Storm chances increase Thursday and Thursday night. 



- A chance of thunderstorms and normal temperatures are expected 

  for the Fourth of July and Independence Day weekend. 



&&



.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...

Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025



Convective inhibition was weakening on the plains per latest SPC

analysis, and we're starting to see some surface based cumulus on

the plains. Thus, we still expect isolated to scattered storms

to develop onto the lower elevations with a bit more surface 

heating. Those will continue through early evening, slowly 

migrating eastward before the airmass stabilizes again late this 

evening. The main hazard will be strong, gusty microburst winds 

given DCAPE of 1400-1600 J/kg, and a couple severe gusts of 60 mph

over the northeast plains. 



For Wednesday, the center of the upper level ridge will shift 

eastward across the forecast area. This means a stronger cap, hot

temperatures (mid 90s for the plains), and less convective 

activity. While a few showers/weak storms are still expected over 

the mountains, the plains will almost certainly stay dry with 

southerly flow aloft keeping the convection confined to the high 

country. 



For Thursday, we're still on track to see a plume of sub-tropical

moisture move northward into Colorado, in the southerly flow

between the upper level high shifting into the Southern Plains 

and a weak trough lifting across the Desert Southwest. As a 

result, Thursday's convective intensity and coverage is expected 

to increase, with likely the best chance (30-60%) of rain this 

week. 



With regard to the Independence Day weather, we're still seeing

mixed signals in the ensemble output. Most have the Desert

Southwest trough ejecting northeast across the forecast area by

mid day, while a few are still slower. The slower ones (about

20-30% of output) would suggest a higher chance of thunderstorms,

at least for the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, the majority (70-80%)  

being faster would suggest less coverage of somewhat weaker 

storms, and also an earlier departure for evening events. 



Typical summer weather is then expected through the Independence

Day weekend, with temperatures at/just above normal levels and a 

few rumbles of thunder each afternoon and evening. MLCAPE does 

build across the plains, so a couple strong/severe storms would be

possible mainly east of the I-25 Corridor during this time frame.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...

Issued at 1159 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025



VFR through tonight. Southeast winds will increase this afternoon

with gusts up to 20 knots at KDEN/KAPA. The winds will become

lighter and more southerly by 04z.



&&



.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch

AVIATION...Gimmestad